Not your average recession . . . .

[biglentil]

And no tire lasts forever, cracks and leaks develop under a heavy load of debt and waning influence, more and more inflation is required to keep it rolling but eventually and usually all at once more air(money printing) is of no use.

[errolanderson]

Selloff day, strap-in . . . Record deflation now running rampant across global asset classes. Check-out some longterm eye-opening charts. errolanderson.substack.com

[errolanderson]

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX
How fast are global commodity prices deflating considering heavily weighted crude oil has been in a modest uptrend?

[biglentil]

Dxy struggling to maintain 100, while Gold is flying near $2700.

Errol where'd you go?

[ajl]

Errol is too busy profiting off the deflation trade to post on here. Looked at canola prices today? Natural gas in Alberta is free these days if you can take delivery to give two examples of deflation. Kinda surprised gold is doing that well but it responds to crisis of all sorts but other commodities not necessarily.

[errolanderson]

China has been the major buyer of gold, but their economy is now in a severe deflationary recession / depression. China’s gov’t is panicking injecting 1trillion yuan ($142 billion U.S) into their failing banking system this week. Major record gains in the Shanghai and CSI indexes this week, but unlikely to hold (IMO).

U.S. economy has been in an unofficial recession since last spring. U.S. manufacturing now in a deep recession. Trucking industry fallout canary in-the-coal-mine.

Canada has only avoided a severe recession to-date by massive immigration, bandaid economics at-best. Will let the politicians battle this out.

My two bits, ‘throw it out with the wash’

Gold is heavily overbought. Reversal Friday? Miners are in the dumpster. Silver up, but struggling despite gold rocket launch.

USD is quite oversold.

Cdn $ up only on USD weakness. BOC will continue to slash rates.

Central bankers are panicking on deflation worries. Bankers can’t control deflation and can’t cut rates fast enough. Fed 50 pt cut again in Nov?

Banking crisis in-progress and battling to keep the odour under-the-sheets.

But apparently we are told it’s soft landing. What a bunch of BS, sorry agriville . . . .

OPEC has lost its oil price monopoly. They are now just a share of the global oil market. The U.S. is now the world’s largest producer. Alberta exporting aggressively. But WCS oil could break below $50 per barrel. Tough on gov’t budget.

Grains have been the ‘first to bottom’(IMO). Modest recovery now appears in-progress. Energies are a mess ie: oil. Diesel fallout continues.

Suffield spot nat gas broke below 75 cents per gigajoule this summer. Now about $2.50, but dirt cheap. Correct me here, but in Ralph Klein days, believe AECO spot approached $14 per gig in its heyday.

Investors actually racing toward cash despite index record highs.

Bottomline, not much adds up. Social media makes me turn green, but the show continues.

Want to hear more? errolanderson.substack.com

[biglentil]

Miners in the dumpster? Really?

[errolanderson]

Dr Copper is making a statement . . . .

My opinion: China (the world’s 2nd largest economy) has now entered a depression, Germany (the world’s 3rd largest economy) is not far behind. Asian stock markets in-collapse, in particular South Korea.

U.S. equities continue record breaking supported in-part by flow of money out of China and Korea. The U.S. is now the last dog standing. The U.S. economy now accounts for nearly 70% of entire G7 GDP.

Commodities continue to battle a demand problem globally.

Rates are now likely to stabilize. The Fed and BOC will likely hold rates steady in December.

Trump’s tariff threats are posturing in my opinion. The U.S. has as much to lose as any country threatened. China, Mexico and Canada will retaliate.

U.S. debt bomb now going off. Bankruptcies starting to run amuck.

Oil prices, diesel trend remain down. Major support for WTI is now seen at $64.50 per barrel. But my personal longterm target for is $50 per barrel. When? Don’t have a clue.This would break Alberta oil toward $40 per barrel.

Cryptos are manipulated crap shoot (sorry agriville). Now tax capital gains advantages said to be offered by the new administration. Not a level playing field.

Anyway, my two-bits about markets. December will be interesting as the debt bomb ignites into the Xmas season.

P.S. Trump touted 60% tariffs on China during his campaign.

What to read more, listen more? errolanderson.substack.com

[westernvicki]

We need an election. Navigating the next few years is going to take financial acumen.

[errolanderson]

Just in . . . Canada’s 3rd quarter GDP came in @ 1% vs 1.6% expected. This compares to 2nd quarter of 2%.

MORE BOC RATES CUTS MAY BE ON-THE-TABLE. LOONIE PRESSURE.

[ajl]

canuckistan has been in recession for many years already. Ever increasing levels of gubmint spending has kept the GDP print from going negative but the shrinking loon is a sign that interest rates are too low. Gubmint has to borrow ever increasing amounts to keep the illusion that we are not in recession. Grain prices are alarmingly low given the worthless loon these days.

[Sodbuster]

Just in . . . Canada’s 3rd quarter GDP came in @ 1% vs 1.6% expected. This compares to 2nd quarter of 2%.

MORE BOC RATES CUTS MAY BE ON-THE-TABLE. LOONIE PRESSURE.

And with pressure on the loonie inflation starts cycling again. Me, I think BOC should leave rates where they are now.

[shtferbrains]

If inflation goes up and pushes interest rates will the $250 freebie help pay the mortgage in the GTA?

[biglentil]

Well Gold is up 40% on the year in CAD, Bitcoin up 110% on the year. The "Cash is King" narrative once again a sucker's bet. We are in stagflation just as I called if you look back at my posts from years ago. Now what's to come? More of the same only on steroids. We don't just have WW3 brewing, many are saying it has begun. Its an inflationary superstorm. The BRICS nations(members making up over half the worlds pop) are engaged in dedollarization at the fastest rate in history. Every dip in gold is being bought by the East. Printing presses are going brrrrrr all around the world. Along with war spending and destruction of infrastructure demand for strategic resources and hard methods of settlement will only increase.

Rates are going to have to rise in a futile attempt to try and maintain the purchasing power of the dollar. However this drives up the cost on debt in a heavily indebted nation like ours. We are beyond the rubicon, every new dollar of debt has less of a marginal benefit to gdp than it once did. More and more debt is needed to service the interest payments on existing debt and keep the bubble economy afloat. Central banksters backs are against the wall. This problem didn’t just manifest it's 50 plus years in the making since the elimination of the sound monetary system of Bretton Woods. There are no easy solutions, things could get real very quick, prepare accordingly.

[Old Cowzilla]

There maybe no easy solution but on my farm the first thing I do to get things back in order is to stop writing checks for things you can do without. Government could try that first and see how that works. As for the $250 and other goodies it reminds me of a seen in Kevin Costner's waterworld where the ship's leader (Dennis Hopper) throws out smoke's to the poor souls stranded on the Exxon Valdez (Canada ) to try to calm them down. If the currant government doesn't make it to spring would those checks still be good anyway