Deciding on the CWB

[almoy]

Lahenheath, haven't had chance to look at latest pro's did they drop again?

[lakenheath]

They sure did. And at this point, any drop is very substantial.

[lakenheath]

On average about 11 cents on Durum and about 5 cents on Hard Red Spring. I am scared to see what the new crop PRO's bring to the table.

I have hunch that the pea and lentil market (which they claim is currently flooded) is going to be drowned this coming year.

[lakenheath]

I don't even know what to say anymore. We have a lot of guys around here who turned down decent feed prices because the CWB pro was higher, now since christmas if they dropped another $0.05/bus on hard red, that would mean that a hard red #3 with 12 protein is at 2.65/bus. Why am I selling to the CWB? Bad thing is though I can't get out my A series anymore so I'm stuck with them, when I could get more for feed. If the CWB has our best interest at heart shouldn't they be letting guys out of contracts if they can make more money else where?

[lakenheath]

I more thing, bet guys are kicking their buts that didn't sign an EPO.

[lakenheath]

An EPO is no good if you can't haul though.

[lakenheath]

Lakenheath, you guys haven't moved any wheat yet since harvest??

[chaffmeister]

Hey guys – educate me. The current PRO for #1CWRS 13.5 is about $6-7 above the PRO last spring (just before you were seeding). If it doesn’t pencil a profit now, it sure as hell didn’t then. Could it be that you assume the PRO will improve over the crop year (which it tends to do, with some exceptions)? So, even though it’s slightly higher now, you were expecting more?

[lakenheath]

Actually you are wrong. They were 10 cents a bushel higher last spring. But last spring fertilizer was also significantly lower. Sure, we all hope like hell that the PRO's will come up, but you can't rely on hope only. You need to pencil a plan. Right now an average crop of #1 CWRS 12.5 protein would lose me about $6.00 bushel on rented land.

[melvill]

Myabe one of the best lessons to come from this delivery problem is that a Fixed Price and/or Basis Contract means guaranteed delivery by the end of the crop year. Yes, the end of July is a long way off but . . . .