Canola Marketing Idol

[farmers_son]

I reread the game rules and see that I am forced to sell in multiples of 10 tonnes so should have sold all 100 tonnes, but that doesn't change the point I was trying to make that the players are not in a position to speculate so speculation is pretty much out of the question even on the 4.3 tonnes that I would not have otherwise been forced to sell.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

I PUT ON A TEXAS HEDGE AND I WENT LONG 100MT OF NOV05 CANOLA AT 301.5/MT

[crusher]

Texas hedge: will $300 Nov hold or will farmer selling start to kick the legs out? Texas hedge at $270 would have been better (or do you have 100 tonnes of that too!)
Those that have to price out July contracts this week might be a little stressed.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

UNTIL NOV 05 SOYBEANS ARE SOLIDLY CLOSED UNDER $7/BU FOR A COUPLE OF SESSIONS, $300/MT NOV05 CANOLA WILL HOLD ON A CLOSING BASIS. THATS MY STORY AND I'M STICKING TO IT.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

BLAME IT ON TEXAS. COVERED SHORT AT CLOSE . 285/MT. -$1650

[crusher]

I figure it is cheaper to buy canola than to spray Rovral so I bought in at $291 today. Once you get past today, there is not any rain in the US eastern corn belt for another week.

[charliep]

Time to lick my wounds/sell some more.

Sold 20 tonnes @ $299/tonne or a sale return of $5,980.

Results

June 20 - Sold 30 tonnes for $9654

July 6 - Sold 20 tonnes for $5,950

Total sales - $15,634 or an average price of $312.68/tonne.

[JD4ME]

50 percent sold huh?? are you wondering about those tropical storms/hurricanes pathes too? as I am. They could flip this market down quick if they hit on the louisiana coast and head straight north .
Always interesting.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html

[JD4ME]

That said and looking at the overnight with beans up close to 10 cents again,it may be alittle to far south. Maybe this will be the thing that gets rust happening in the gulf states.

[charliep]

Am away for two weeks so need to do something. I am going to put in some grain pricing orders for while I am away.

Sell 20 tonnes at $299/tonne.

Sell additional 20 tonnes at $310/tonne.

Futures must close above to trigger sales. Will be back to review on July 25.

Farmers_son - you have good potential to be right on your strategy. What is always interesting to me is to look at the results/review what should have been done differently realizing you only had some of the information at the time of the sale.