Canola Price

[shtferbrains]

So canola is rising again. What exactly changed in supply and demand in the last month or so. Not a thing. Money just sloshed back into the sector again.

Lot of the commodity board moved at similar values.
Don't know where the money comes from but they used to say the Bulls put the run on the Bears.
WTI was up $3.50 or 5% in one day.
Soy Oil moved about the same % AS Canola.

[foragefarmer]

Actually GREAT news/idea, nothing SAD.

" Putin might be the most crazed person on the planet; however, when is the last time you heard a North American politician worry about grain prices falling below the cost of production? And this morning you have Poland and Romania concerned about cheap grain flooding their countries to the detriment of farmers. Canada and the US keep sending money to the UKR; the world bank keeps sending funding for infrastructure – who worries about what it does to the price of wheat for farmers? No one…

I guess it didn't occur to you that Putin wants grain prices to go up so that he get's a better return on the grain he stole from Ukraine.

Farmers in Russia, they're all controlled by oligarchs who have provided their boss with trillions of dollars.

Putin cares about his farmers, your dreaming Fjlip or smoked one to many doobies.

[Landdownunder]

Can check any of recent tenders in public forum as to who has cheapest wheat in the world. Every tender over last 2 months guess he needed currency.

[LWeber]

I guess it didn't occur to you that Putin wants grain prices to go up so that he get's a better return on the grain he stole from Ukraine.

Farmers in Russia, they're all controlled by oligarchs who have provided their boss with trillions of dollars.

Putin cares about his farmers, your dreaming Fjlip or smoked one to many doobies.

"Sources later told Reuters that Russia had no plans to halt
wheat exports but wanted exporters to ensure prices paid to
farmers were high enough to cover average production costs."

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-grains-idAFL8N3613VK

Since the invasion began - 4 MMT of wheat has been lost in UKR.
Russia grew 92 MMT of wheat last year.


Try thinking once...or is that capacity used up to breathe?

[helmach]

I guess it didn't occur to you that Putin wants grain prices to go up so that he get's a better return on the grain he stole from Ukraine.

Farmers in Russia, they're all controlled by oligarchs who have provided their boss with trillions of dollars.

Putin cares about his farmers, your dreaming Fjlip or smoked one to many doobies.

I think he cares about the russian economy and understands the impact and role agriculture has to play in it for his people.

[fjlip]

Over here, the masses just buy at grocery stores....they don't need farmers.

[fjlip]

"so that he get's a better return on the grain he stole from Ukraine."

apparently Russia needs 60+ new ships to haul it away in the coming years.

[foragefarmer]

"Sources later told Reuters that Russia had no plans to halt
wheat exports but wanted exporters to ensure prices paid to
farmers were high enough to cover average production costs."

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-grains-idAFL8N3613VK

Since the invasion began - 4 MMT of wheat has been lost in UKR.
Russia grew 92 MMT of wheat last year.


Try thinking once...or is that capacity used up to breathe?

Funny why you didn't include this information from Reuters as well Weber. I guess you couldn't provide the two links at the same time as the office cell phone screen wasn't big enough.


"Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest is likely to fall to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million in 2022 as less acreage is sown due to the Russian invasion, a forecast by the Ukrainian agriculture ministry showed on Monday."

Plus the 4 million tonnes Putin stole that you mentioned above.

That should improve Putin's farmers (Oligarchs) bottom line which will keep Putin's bank account full. Probably makes you job a little easier in a raising market as well.

Have a great day!

[WiltonRanch]

What is the state of Russian wheat production? I know they have a ton of land but a lot of it is marginal. I get the sense it could be best serviced with Canadian prairies or Australian type equipment and farming practices but presently more labour and rudimentary farming methods outside of the better areas where western investment was present. Anyone have a concrete idea other than third hand knowledge?

[shtferbrains]

Money never used to slosh around like that 25 yrs ago. Globalization has made that possible. These big sums will be stuck in tech for a few weeks, then switch over to consumer discretionary, or precious metals, or to china and back, USDT, etc. Rinse and repeat.

Sometimes at night they park them in a forex trade or reverse repo facility with the fed. Creates lots of volatility.

Follow the money?
This chart is dated Mar 22 prior to the 5 day run up we are in now.