DEFLATION: Comin-in strong

[FarmJunkie]

U will be right one of these times Errol. Ain’t seeing no deflation in farm inputs or machinery yet

[Guest]

Or groceries, or fuel, or parts , or vehicles , or anything for that matter? Other than fert and roundup although they are still higher than before liberal shit show started

[biglentil]

This is a 6 month Brent Crude chart closed the week above 95. Oil has been rising with the Usd index and a skyrocketing bond yield. Tough to say which one will break first, the dollar or oil.

[Old Cowzilla]

Grains under harvest pressure but I got the highest price for yearlings I have ever got and if you think this party is about over you can still pencil in a profit if you lock in a sept. futures for calves bought now. Trying sort all this world crap out while trying to make a living is very tiring !!!!!

[jazz]

As I have said before, inflation cannot moderate so long as the govt is printing and spending at break neck speed.

Has nothing to do with the consumer anymore.

How much did trudeau print up this past week errol.

[errolanderson]

WHAT IS DEFLATION?

1. Falling consumer prices . . . check
2. Decreasing asset prices . . . check
3. Reduced consumer spending . . . check
4. Lower wages . . . incoming
5. Reduced business investment . . . check
6. Tightening credit conditions . . . check
7. Hoarding of cash . . . incoming
8. Central Bank rate cuts . . . incoming

China which consumes more than 50% of global commodities is now in deepening recession. This will overpower OPEC’s oil supply manipulation (IMO). Saudi’s have to be concerned as they need high oil prices to finance massive new projects.

Evergrande now appears to be China’s Lehman Bros event. Money printing gig is now out-of-fashion as impact continues to worsen economies.

Central bankers chasing the inflation rabbit while making the debt crisis far worse. A true gong-show . . . .

[bucket]

WHAT IS DEFLATION?

1. Falling consumer prices . . . check
2. Decreasing asset prices . . . check
3. Reduced consumer spending . . . check
4. Lower wages . . . incoming
5. Reduced business investment . . . check
6. Tightening credit conditions . . . check
7. Hoarding of cash . . . incoming
8. Central Bank rate cuts . . . incoming

China which consumes more than 50% of global commodities is now in deepening recession. This will overpower OPEC’s oil supply manipulation (IMO). Saudi’s have to be concerned as they need high oil prices to finance massive new projects.

Evergrande now appears to be China’s Lehman Bros event. Money printing gig is now out-of-fashion as impact continues to worsen economies.

Central bankers chasing the inflation rabbit while making the debt crisis far worse. A true gong-show . . . .

Nothing I spend money on has deflated to prices prior to the recent 3 year run up.

Vehicles, fuel, equipment , inputs , nothing has come down enough to say we are in a deflationary period on this farm.

However , the prices I receive for anything I grow has magically been reduced. I would say my income is deflationary.

[jazz]

Slower inflation is not deflation errol. Deflation would be for prices to fall below some long established trendline, like the decade before. Oil would be a marker of that, but its on its way to $100.

There is still inflation in the RE sector because people are now locked in their homes and rates so supply is dwindling. And new builders wont build until new owners can qualify. There is a big rollover of mortgages on homes and commercial RE coming in the next yr. The fed is going to have to cut rates by 5% to stop a mass default. That I agree with. But I doubt they act until there is absolute blood on the streets.

[Taiga]

I was quoted a price for a new home build on my property yesterday. Gas and electricity there, nice flat site.
Just a 3 bedroom single story house on slab. Kids will be gone in a few years.
Was quoted $1.2M-$1.7M budget range. $500-$700 per finished sqft.
In 2008 I built a house twice the size by the best in demand local builder for $600k.
No way I am spending that on a house build! Can buy more land for that and it will appreciate, the house will be a loser.
Only a handful of builders left here, most have closed their doors. I don’t see any new construction either, but maybe there is in town, I wouldn’t know.

[jazz]

Just a 3 bedroom single story house on slab. Kids will be gone in a few years.
Was quoted $1.2M-$1.7M budget range. $500-$700 per finished sqft.

Where is that at Taiga, seems very high. Maybe add $500k to the build and put the kids in the back half. They will never touch a home at those prices.