DEFLATION: Comin-in strong

[biglentil]

Biglentil, good point. Supply chain issues have created the perfect opportunity for gouging. Just look at grocery chain profits recently. Is this true inflation?

Once the suppliers losing control of tight inventory, prices collapse. This is now happening one-by-one. Wait for the layoffs, wait for the bankruptcies, welcome 2023 . . . .

Central bankers don't appear to have a clue. They'll destroy the economy on their march to battle inflation and make the current recession/depression far deeper. Asset prices are in big, big trouble (in my view) . . . .

Luxury items like large homes, boats, RV's..... will suffer. However I see cost of living going much higher food and fuel in particular. Biden administration just kneecapped China's ability to manufacture computer chips by revoking all US personel and support. Yara with another large fertilizer production cut in Europe. Nordstream 1 and 2 may have a large effect on Germany's ability to manufacture. Higher rates could create a debt crisis that makes 2008 look mild in comparison. Its ugly...

[furrowtickler]

Perspective..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v5JjWNdXjGM

[errolanderson]

Luxury items like large homes, boats, RV's..... will suffer. However I see cost of living going much higher food and fuel in particular. Biden administration just kneecapped China's ability to manufacture computer chips by revoking all US personel and support. Yara with another large fertilizer production cut in Europe. Nordstream 1 and 2 may have a large effect on Germany's ability to manufacture. Higher rates could create a debt crisis that makes 2008 look mild in comparison. Its ugly...

good comments . . . my view on commodities is; prices are demand-driven, not supply driven.

We are taught in economics school that demand + supply = price. Well, academia is wrong in real life. Demand is king. If crude oil demand drops globally, prices will drop, no matter the supply concern. There will be rallies, but short-lived. (IMO) . . . OPEC or no OPEC. OPEC knows this and must be a worry for the cartel.

[biglentil]

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It is interesting how we have multiple threads at the same time, discussing the massive and ongoing inflation in farm machinery and inputs. Meanwhile we have multiple threads about the impending and ongoing deflation.
They can't both be right, can they?

[TOM4CWB]

Natural Gas prices going negative on spot markets…
Both EU and US gulf…
Russia / Putin are buying all the oil/LNG transport ships that they can … chaos and market disruptions… command and control…

Turning off GPS tracking…

Volatility and instability… grains can get sucked into the vortex of chaos…

[errolanderson]

U.S. money supply is now decelerating rapidly as sign of strong incoming deflationary pressures.

Bloomberg reports that 37 percent of small business now not paying their rent . . . discounts, discounts, discounts.

[Hamloc]

It is interesting how we have multiple threads at the same time, discussing the massive and ongoing inflation in farm machinery and inputs. Meanwhile we have multiple threads about the impending and ongoing deflation.
They can't both be right, can they?

I have been trying to figure out if the reduced supply of new equipment is intentional or a result of actual unavailability of parts to build them. According to the one salesman I deal with, the problem is the manufacturers can’t get the parts they need in a timely manner from their Chinese suppliers. Certainly glad I bought the equipment I did last year and the year before. Prices on Mfwd tractors are up 50% over last year. Absolutely no signs of deflation. Potash is up 50% from what I payed last year, again no deflation. Diesel fuel, last week for farm diesel was $1.51 a litre. Just bought cow mineral the other day, it was up $6 a bag from 2 months ago. Errol where is the deflation, when will I see it?!

[furrowtickler]

Agree , I see zero discounts and only continued inflation in everything Ag related ….. everything

[fcr]

A bit off topic a litre of dmo 15/40 oil at our coop is 9.00 bucks , walking tru Walmart and noticed they sell dmo 15/40 for 3.43 a litre. Did some on line research and it looks good .Anyone using it .