Once in a Lifetime Opportunity

[wheatking16]

I know a friend and neighbour who signed a fair bit of fall delivered canola at $19. My fear is if we don’t plant all the acres in SE Sask or we plant late and it freezes early fall could get caught a long ways off side. I would love to sign a DDC on canola at these prices now but I’m still a wary of doing it!!

Nov 2022 keeps making new weekly highs.

Let the trend be your friend.

[jazz]

Gotta grow it first. We are 2 weeks off our usual seeding window. Dont want a repeat of the harvest from hell.

Its nice to guarantee returns, but by this time next yr, Canola could be $1400 a bu. I dont see how supply shocks and shortages get resolved in a single yr.

[sumdumguy]

$1400/bus? That’s way too cheap. 😂

[Sodbuster]

That’s next year’s price in Canadian pesos.

[foragefarmer]

If all inputs were purchased late summer /early fall for the 2022 growing season and a decent crop is harvested good money will be made.

For those who bought inputs in the new year or are currently buying, will it be any different then past years regarding net return?

One thing is guaranteed for the latter, their screens will be locked in on the weather like never before.

Even greater stress will be added to everybody for the next 6 months.

Good luck to everybody in the new age of Casino Farming!

[TOM4CWB]

Interesting management decisions being made.

Doing nothing is a decision... if we have the canola seed, fertilizer, equipment, and land to plant our crop this spring... most farmers have these supplies at the homestead ready to go... we are committed to the 2022 crop already.

Canola At over $24/bu[Fall 2022]... even if the price was $50/bu next fall... the put option means this is the worst we can do... no risk... we still get the higher price we get the 2022 crop. Spending the $85/t on the $1085/t put... is the only money at risk.

[blackpowder]

No one seems to be mentioning buying inputs this fall at potentially todays prices? Not quite so funny then.

[tubs]

Interesting management decisions being made.

Doing nothing is a decision... if we have the canola seed, fertilizer, equipment, and land to plant our crop this spring... most farmers have these supplies at the homestead ready to go... we are committed to the 2022 crop already.

Canola At over $24/bu[Fall 2022]... even if the price was $50/bu next fall... the put option means this is the worst we can do... no risk... we still get the higher price we get the 2022 crop. Spending the $85/t on the $1085/t put... is the only money at risk.

If you don't like risk Tom why did you become a farmer?

[TOM4CWB]

If you don't like risk Tom why did you become a farmer?

I was born a farmer... will die a farmer... no one alive today exists without risk. Risk is part of the human condition... going with the knowledge of good and evil [live spelled backwards is evil] Evil=death.

How we manage risk... is an interesting human practice and study.

[Sodbuster]

That once in a lifetime opportunity is getting expensive when you start making margin calls. In hindsight I might of been better off buying a put. In theory as long as I sell my short canola paper at the same time as selling my physical canola I should end up with $1000 a tonne.

Didn’t see Indonesia palm oil happening, gotta wonder what’s next, this year’s been full of surprises so far.