Energy Transition Just died This Week

[Hamloc]

chuck is pretty quiet these day. Maybe having your whole dream of a world powered by wind and solar and fairy dust destroyed by reality is a bit much to take.

This renewable farce is over. Its done, it will never get off the ground ever again. Countries are scrambling to secure their production, hoarding supplies, looking for more drilling, LNG, etc. All of the renewable materials have 3X in price. Canada has been called to open the taps for europe. US upping natural gas for transport to Europe, middle east holding supplies down, and a new eastern bloc of China and india sipping on cheap Russian sanctioned oil.

Its over, just like I predicted. What a joke it even got this far. Letting children set energy policy. Only question is now how high oil goes. Its not even driving season yet.

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Europe suddenly seems to realize they have linked their energy security of supply to a tyrannical regime in Russia. Yet the Europe and North America are poised to repeat the mistake. Both say renewables are the answer. 80% of the world solar panels are manufactured in China. Of the materials used to make solar panels, China controls 64% of the polysilicon material worldwide, the U.S. has a 10% market share. After polysilicon comes the solar ingots and wafers, China’s share is nearly 100% worldwide. It doesn’t appear that world leaders are learning from their mistakes!!!

[jazz]

What I find interesting with this “special exercise” in Ukraine and whatever else you’d think oil should be to the moon but it has yet to peak like it did before in a no war situation. Still it’s gone up, especially at the pumps but crude itself hasn’t hit any records. What am I missing?

The sanctions have a time delay in them. Most dont go into full force for another couple months.

Called virtue signal wiggle room.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The sanctions have a time delay in them. Most dont go into full force for another couple months.

Called virtue signal wiggle room.

And they probably never will be enforced. It would take years or decades to replace the Russian oil and gas into Europe.

[LEP]

I agree. But consider, if in the longer term, this gives natural incentive for the search for alternate energy sources. Note I did not stipulate what alternate looked like.

I read an interesting report by Goerhing and Rozencwajg from FEB 23, 2022 called "The distortion of cheap energy"

The jist of it is that the only reason "green energy" has moved ahead at all is because of the last few years of cheap oil and cheap interest rates. Green energy is so capital and energy intensive that it can only return 3.5:1 on energy expended, oil is 30:1 and nuclear is 100:1. So if oil remains high and interest rates creep up " clean green " will never happen.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I read an interesting report by Goerhing and Rozencwajg from FEB 23, 2022 called "The distortion of cheap energy"

The jist of it is that the only reason "green energy" has moved ahead at all is because of the last few years of cheap oil and cheap interest rates. Green energy is so capital and energy intensive that it can only return 3.5:1 on energy expended, oil is 30:1 and nuclear is 100:1. So if oil remains high and interest rates creep up " clean green " will never happen.

Is that a paid report? I can't find it.

[WiltonRanch]

The sanctions have a time delay in them. Most dont go into full force for another couple months.

Called virtue signal wiggle room.

Makes sense. Water runs downhill so not likely the flow gets stopped. Wonder with fertilizer as well.

[LEP]

Is that a paid report? I can't find it.

They are fund managers. I am on the road for a couple weeks and will try posting a link when I get back to my desktop.

[mcfarms]

What I find interesting with this “special exercise” in Ukraine and whatever else you’d think oil should be to the moon but it has yet to peak like it did before in a no war situation. Still it’s gone up, especially at the pumps but crude itself hasn’t hit any records. What am I missing?

Oil and gas are up strongly the last few weeks following Putin's misadventures in the Ukraine. Many countries have sanctioned Russia however not all notably China and India and these are reportedly picking up Russian oil at lowered prices.much like Canadian canola sales to the UAE where it was crushed and the oil re-exported during the Chinese sanctions on Canada, often commodities still find their way to end users through alternative routes, or bought by countries that shirk international duties or simply disagree with the embargo, I also just saw a report on Sky news where Nat. gas flows to Europe from Russia are higher now than before the invasion .

[jazz]

So if oil remains high and interest rates creep up " clean green " will never happen.

I will say out loud the unpopular view that the real war isnt even in Ukraine. Sure the kinetic war is there, but this is a war of something bigger.

The US will now have to raise interest rates to head off a recession, but they will have to remain higher to protect the dollar. The US values their reserve currency above all else. And with the oil trade disrupted in export flows and payments structures and uncertainty ensures it will remain high. To get it back down they will have to embark on a 5 yr massive drilling plan. And they are hesitant to put in permanent infrastructure because we will just use that instead of any green energy.

The green dream will have to go full nuclear now. Uranium is the only commodity that is undervalued but a lot of it comes from Kazakhstan too. Canada and Australia are the other big suppliers.

[jazz]

Looks like another climate hypocrite landed on the beach. Anybody falling for this climate garbage is a full on fool.