Thoughts on Fertilizer

[helmsdale]

But why hasnt the guy shipped out/ sold the product? Are his bins full because lots of us have spoke for and bought fert that the retailer still doesnt have.

There physically are no buyers. Product is in store. I know of 4 people that have taken and or pre-bought fertilizer committing to take it. Everyone else is playing the waiting game. And of those 4, one has sourced enough to put just 30lb's down and thinks that might be all he'll buy if price doesnt come down.

[GDR]

But why hasnt the guy shipped out/ sold the product? Are his bins full because lots of us have spoke for and bought fert that the retailer still doesnt have. I made the deal in Sept for Nov take and then they said Dec, now saying January. I'm just hoping they have some by spring.

Dry here too, without abnormally wet year or will be sub par for 2022.

[helmsdale]

I have written off 2022 already. It was totally dry before freeze up, hardly any snow yet this winter (snow does not add much anyway). Have bought enough alfalfa to seed 100% alfalfa next year if I have to. Not paying twice for fert than I did last year. Still wait and see approach.

I'm seeing close to 2.5x and still climbing...

Let's say it goes to 3x. Do guys in sure crop areas who had impressive fertilizer laydowns before triple their outlay for the upcoming year? With soil moisture levels across western canada, the sure crop area has certainly decreased...

Let's say alot of producers keep their $ outlays the same per acre, that means what 40-45% of traditional fertilizer laydowns? That SERIOUSLY caps the top end potential for production. Now take that global rather than just regional, and its impact is potentially monumental!

[Taiga]

I have written off 2022 already. It was totally dry before freeze up, hardly any snow yet this winter (snow does not add much anyway). Have bought enough alfalfa to seed 100% alfalfa next year if I have to. Not paying twice for fert than I did last year. Still wait and see approach.

[helmsdale]

An agent (I wont out the company or the person) that I talked to today said he has booked/shipped less than 10% of what he typically has done by this time of year from end of seeding this year. And at that, he typically has 50% of total spoken for or gone out of the yard by now. That equates to 5% of average fertilizer demand accounted for as of now.

There's two sides of the coin, if none is moving at these prices, perhaps wholesalers will have to drop prices to get movement? Or, with so many guys waiting it out, that leaves a tremendous amount of demand to come forward yet, which means that will further exasperate any sort of shortages which pushes prices up?

I've made my peace with possibly bare-balling this crop. I cannot in good conscience spend this kind of money knowing that with ZERO soil moisture, this particular region doesnt stand a very good chance of pulling much of a crop, and perhaps an even worse one than the disaster that was 2021.

What are other guys seeing? Is this a Southern Alberta anomaly?

It seems natural that fertilizer layout will decrease with increased prices, but if they are even remotely close to as low as this area on a global scale, then are we possibly heading towards a man-made global food shortage? In that case, these lofty prices aren't likely going anywhere, and therefore a guy should bite the bullet and lay at least average groceries at it?

Being that we're short of alot of commodities already, if the global ag community lops off the top end potential for any fertilizer intensive crop (canola/corn/other cereals) does it further exacerbate global shortages?