Fertilizer prices today will bankrupt most farms with a hiccup next year. PERIOD!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If not planning to grow anything you're not mining.

[ATTACH]9285[/ATTACH]

Quite a contrast between the total soil moisture map, and the departure from normal map:


Most of the red area is actually close to long term normal, whereas our area out west was a healthy green on the total soil moisture map, but on the 2nd map, we are amongst the driest in the prairies compared to normal. Which isn't neccesarily a bad thing going into spring around here.

While doing some excavations this fall was surprised how much the soil moisture recharged since mid summer when we dug some trenches.

Looks wet around Regina

looks dry in the swamp

[blackpowder]

Haven't got tests back yet.
But even with early pre buys the anticipated blends are running between $90 & $120.
I learned a long time ago that you always have to seed. And that it's the fixed costs that kill you. Garbage in the ground, garbage in the bin.
Of course with nil soil moisture, I will be as careful as I can. Our sure crop area never had a written guarantee of how much.
And if it doesn't rain, there are deep pockets here paying $100-$120+ rents.
$900k/ quarter and I'll live.
I've been worrying about this for 35 years and I've become oblivious.
Happy seeding!

[helmsdale]

Looks wet around Regina

I think the "ghetto" did well this year...

That said, I'm in that real nice dark red patch. Not that that's anything particularly out of the ordinary.

On the upside if we do get any snow it should go down in the spring cause there is ZERO frost in this soil this fall! I'm going to have to be unable to get down high-grade roads on account of massive amounts of snow before I dump much in the way of fertilizer down. 50lb's of 27-27 might be a waste if it doesnt decide to get serious about ending this drought!

[SASKFARMER]

Looks wet around Regina

[farming101]

If not planning to grow anything you're not mining.

A while ago there was a thread about “how is Trudeau going to get farms to reduce fertilizer use by 30% by 2030” and lots said there is no way it will happen.

I think this thread just answered that one!!!

Maybe not a bad thing
Less wear and tear, less bins, less work , less risk, etc

[WiltonRanch]

A while ago there was a thread about “how is Trudeau going to get farms to reduce fertilizer use by 30% by 2030” and lots said there is no way it will happen.

I think this thread just answered that one!!!

Yes and it will be a great trial run for agribusiness, grain handlers, transporters, and food producers. I always thought ethanol was the backstop in the event of massive crop failures that which those grains would be diverted into the food stream but I don’t think that production nor the opportunity cost tied up in that necessarily transfers to bringing on more needed foods that easily. 200 bu corn ground doesn’t necessarily grow great oats or even milling wheat. Nor does good wheat ground grow much potatoes.

[WiltonRanch]

Most of us in the first world have not experienced serious inflation before, so we have no point of reference. And we likely will cut back and produce smaller crops as we balk at these enormous price increases.

But if I put myself in the shoes of a farmer from some of our biggest competitors especially Argentina or fsu, where out of control inflation has just been a fact of life, they may not be so cautious about investing in high priced inputs, having seen this movie before, and assuming that crop braces will follow as their currency continues to drop.

I don’t know. Hear enough about Argentinian farmers holding onto grain as a means of combating inflation and getting nailed with export taxes. Even farmers ability to get financing for inputs in these locales is a challenge with predatory rates. Seems the only ones who flourish are the foreign owned farming corps or those with deep pockets and friends in high places. Easy to compare to FSU and SA but I don’t want to go to jail for not bribing the right guys or not being successful in my assassination plot.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2021/11/23/north-dakota-farmer-accused-plot-ag
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/therussianreader.com/2016/10/03/krasnodar-farmer-kills-himself-after-land-seized/amp/

[STR1]

A while ago there was a thread about “how is Trudeau going to get farms to reduce fertilizer use by 30% by 2030” and lots said there is no way it will happen.

I think this thread just answered that one!!!