Fertilizer prices today will bankrupt most farms with a hiccup next year. PERIOD!

[TASFarms]

fert dealer said there is no way all the juice cans behind drills will get filled when they need to next spring

Doesn’t sound like a good business partner

fert dealer said there is no way all the juice cans behind drills will get filled when they need to next spring

and heres a reminder of 2 years ago , pricing text;


RICHARDSON PIONEER: Oct 11
**WE WILL NEED SAMPLES OF WHEAT TO TEST FOR FALLING NUMBER BEFORE DELIVERIES. **

RED SPRING WHEAT (1R 13.5)
(additional premiums or discounts to apply for grades, protein & falling number)
HFN (High falling number of 290 +), LFN (Low falling number of 251-289)
Nov: $6.37 (2R HFN: $6.17, 2R LFN: $5.77)
Dec: $6.40
Mar: $6.65
June: $6.77
FEED WHEAT (FN of 250 or less)
Oct: $4.54
Nov-Dec: $4.29
Jan-Feb: $4.42

CANOLA-DLVD ELEVATOR
Oct: $9.42 **Triggering $9.50 Targets****
Nov: 9.54
Dec: $9.62
Mar: $9.93
Sept 2020: $9.73
Dec 2020: $9.90
CANOLA-DLVD YORKTON
Dec: $10.06
Jan: $10.18
Mar: $10.49
Sept: $10.36

OATS
Nov & Dec: 3.00
Jan: $3.15
Apr: $3.25

FEED BARLEY:
Sept-Oct: $3.12
Nov-Dec: $3.25
Jan-Mar: $2.90

and we wondered why we prepriced ??
the real crunch will come when these inputs overlap these prices , and they will

[quadtrac]

Automatically assuming fert prices will drop back to sensible prices for 2023 is sure not an idea to bank on IMO.

Everyone including myself hates this fert price but as long as grain prices hold I think we’re all dreaming that it’ll correct in price for 2023 let alone in time for seeding this coming year.

Only way that’ll happen is if grain prices fall back to where they were a couple years.

They will gauge every penny they can from farmers if they think they can squeeze more from us.
Every last thing. Fert, fuel, parts, iron, everything.

[jdg364]

Producers (IMO) will have to be very careful when figuring out how much they want to risk come spring. We are in a higher rainfall/producing area and usually go with 140# for cnl and 120# actual nitrogen on average.

This year we are trying to keep our Fert costs under $150/ac and there’s the dilemma.. do you mine the ground and which nutrient gets cut the most. We are rolling our fertilizer program back 10-15 years and basically going 75-80% of our 2021 fertilizer program.

We don’t want to miss 2022 crop prices but I don’t want to risk our farm on flopping from another drought.

partners is the smart one here , he's got er all in the ground, and bought cheap !!!

[SASKFARMER]

Farmers in western canada are not scrambling to buy fertilizer talk to manager of a district for a grain company or Fert company

[makar]

Lots or I’d venture to say most have fert priced for 2022 but what about 2023?
Who says there has to be a reset on prices?

Really doubt it.

[ajl]

With modest yield goals given the weather from the past number of years along with good residual fertility level, I will not need to buy much fertilizer next spring. The problem is that if we suddenly do get a good weather regime, I will not have enough nutrition to maximize yield. Last year that would have been the case as well but the early July heat made the problem go away. Have not had good weather at this location for many years so no swinging for the fences around here. Best was 2016 in recent years. Only soil tested the land that produced the most this past fall. Assume that where the crop was quite scant that almost all applied fertilizer still there. I think that the fertilizer has over hyped this shortage to keep farmers buying and that prices will ease into spring especially urea. Seen that a number of times before especially 2009 but more recently 2019. My brother binned fertilizer in the fall and I picked up from dealership in spring for less especially after the may long weekend price drop. Bit worried about P long term though and the soil test said to keep applying P.

[Old Cowzilla]

If us older guys had to go back to filling press drills using 50 lb . fert bags that would likely solve this fertilizer problem.