CBOT Wheat Futures

[wheatking16]

I have no evidence whatsoever to support my theory, but I suspect this is almost entirely and inflation play. The supply and demand numbers really don't justify wheat going to these levels.
But unlike many other commodities, I think everyone recognizes that wheat is food and vital. So how many individuals, traders, companies, countries and investors are investing in wheat as both a hedge against inflation and a physical hedge against breakdown of supply chains.

I agree.

Investment in ETFs, ie.WEAT will result in increased futures contract holdings.

I tend to think there is too much focus on the "fundamentals" or the WHY instead of following the price action.

At some point in the future, there will be a rotation out of commodities contrary to the "fundamentals".

I anticipate a pullback in CBOT wheat in the next 1-2 weeks, maybe as early as next week.

If it happens, it will be interesting as to what the news catalyst will be.

[farming101]

8.70 March before a pullback! I hope

Just a bit under 12 cash for CP plus wheat now

[TechAnalyst]

8.70 March before a pullback! I hope

Well now I don't know if you're just mocking my target or actually optimistic. I think I'll go with the latter.

I believe we should.

[farming101]

8.70 is a good objective.
9.15 slowly falling to 8.70 at the present time has been on the screen for ages. Just had no idea of the timing when price might reach out for that mark

[crusher]

G3 Morinville, Alberta. May CPS $12.40 bid this morning

[wheatking16]

I agree.

Investment in ETFs, ie.WEAT will result in increased futures contract holdings.

I tend to think there is too much focus on the "fundamentals" or the WHY instead of following the price action.

At some point in the future, there will be a rotation out of commodities contrary to the "fundamentals".

I anticipate a pullback in CBOT wheat in the next 1-2 weeks, maybe as early as next week.

If it happens, it will be interesting as to what the news catalyst will be.

Taking a look at the WEAT ETF, we see a rise in prices on declining volume.

I don't focus too much on volume, however, it is difficult to trust rallies when it is declining.

Perhaps, someone else can comment on this.

I anticipate a 1-4 week pullback in both WEAT and CBOT beginning in the next week or two.

[TechAnalyst]

8.70 is a good objective.
9.15 slowly falling to 8.70 at the present time has been on the screen for ages. Just had no idea of the timing when price might reach out for that mark

March Chicago wheat topped $8.70 tonight.

It will be interesting to see what happens after the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Over the decades I've come to expect markets to go against the trend ahead of major holidays (on profit taking, reducing risk) then move sharply in the direction of the trend following the holiday (as they reinstate lifted positions).

Not sure what will be in store for wheat next week after this week's strength.

[farming101]

I wouldn't be too concerned about lower volumes indicating price direction.
More of a concern when you want to trade in a timely manner.
Looks like WEAT should have plenty of liquidity

[Rareearth]

All the commodities seem to be trending upwards, its difficult to pick a top in a single commodity

[farming101]

March Chicago wheat topped $8.70 tonight.

It will be interesting to see what happens after the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Over the decades I've come to expect markets to go against the trend ahead of major holidays (on profit taking, reducing risk) then move sharply in the direction of the trend following the holiday (as they reinstate lifted positions).

Not sure what will be in store for wheat next week after this week's strength.

"It's been a long time comin', but now it's here"

I think this level will be respected. A retrace is overdue. Maybe a .382 move to about 8.30 based off the Nov 8 low. I could be wrong

It would be a bonus to see 916 3/4, the Feb 14, 2011 high taken out. There is also the 947 1/4 high on July 23, 2012.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

All the commodities seem to be trending upwards, its difficult to pick a top in a single commodity

If these up trending markets are simply a manifestation of inflation, rather than reflecting fundamental supply and demand, then picking the top is about as futile as picking the corner on a sphere.

[errolanderson]

Heads up . . . bearish reversal in Chicago today.

[TechAnalyst]

Heads up . . . bearish reversal in Chicago today.

It does bear watching but at this point it appears to be simply profit taking ahead of the holiday (that I mentioned in a previous post). Other clues that I follow suggest the bull market is still alive and well.

The action to start next week will be key. A weak close Monday may be the start of the correction wheatking has been looking for.

If so, not a bad level to sell a bit to reward the bull (for those looking for a reason to).

[errolanderson]

An opinion from Australia . . . .

Lock in your Wheat price.

Yesterdays outside bearish reversal aides my Short Call on Wheat.

Currently trading at $8.50 on CBOT,
Looking for an initial downside target into the $7.81-$7.67 range.
$7.75 to be specific.

The medium term target surrounds the $7.12 area.

November 25, 2021
Rob Zdravevski

[farming101]

Chicago closed a fair bit off the .382 so that's good. However could be some attempts at .500, 8.20 or so based on the last couple trading days.
MW/ZW is over 200 again so what do I know...
Maybe the bulls stayed out at the cabin/lake/beach and the bears were doing the driving today