Natural Gas and fert prices

[jazz]

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[jazz]

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[jazz]

Good thing AB built Keystone XL part way. US going to be crying for it soon. Only question will be will it be gas or oil they want. Biden cant rely on Opec anymore, they are selling their barrels to china and india.

Green cult fail again.

[4GFarms]

I guess I am not a chart reader. Will keep my day job. Thanks for the insight Jazz and company. Looks like fert prices are here to stay.

[macdon02]

Im not gonna comment on fert prices, the economics will work regardless, I'm more worried about availability. Not saying it'll work if you feed it for 50% higher yield than you've previously grown either. But on the ng side it's basically been free from shale oil production and those wells decline at a staggering rate without fracking. Our arctic is absolutely loaded with NG, in a previous life in the oil exploration game early 90s esso etc spent tons of $ pounding the hell out of it. It's there. Back to shale, the free ng is coming to an end, off the top of my head, ng has been in decline for 21~ years roughly as a result of shale. Im using $6 as the long term breakout. Then 8.80 and $14. We are past the 3 month time period so this is more than a reaction. There's a decent seasonal long coming up. I don't like the short side at all. The NG sector is definite investment buy and hold material in my eyes. 21 years was a long run and this could produce 7 at minimum.....

[errolanderson]

I guess I am not a chart reader. Will keep my day job. Thanks for the insight Jazz and company. Looks like fert prices are here to stay.

Nothing stays up forever, markets are a cycle and always will be.

Can fertilizer prices drop back, absolutely, but when and timing is another question.

Remember, the huge drop in shipping costs now in-progress. Russia holding back production, but that may have the shelf life of $80 plus crude during a global recession (IMO).

[jazz]

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[4GFarms]

I think the fert prices will be hard to swallow meaning less crop and higher prices but the same end dollars. Not sure next year will be as good as this year

[jazz]

Just rearranging the deck chairs - gas for coal - renewables still a non factor in base generation.

By companies trying to get out from Trudeaus climate Gestapo they switch to a fuel that has much broader implications including home heating and food production.

People wanted climate action, they are going to get it hard now.

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[fjlip]

"I’m afraid we’re going to have a food crisis’: The energy crunch has made fertilizer too expensive to produce", says Yara CEO

https://abruptearthchanges.com/2021/11/10/im-afraid-were-going-to-have-a-food-crisis-the-energy-crunch-has-made-fertilizer-too-expensive-to-produce-says-yara-ceo/