Alberta Climate Records

[AlbertaFarmer5]

No chuck. If This is the new normal, then the extreme dry land Farmers don't have to look forward to crop failures forever more. They will adapt and migrate as farmers have been doing since time began. Just like all of the farmer who gave up on the palliser triangle and moved out to this area during the dust bowl years.
Continuous, high inputs non-irrigated farming in the drought prone areas of the semi-arid prairies was never a sustainable practice. We have enjoyed a relatively benign and wet era since settling the prairies. But if you look back to the Paleo climate records, this era has been exceptionally favorable. The lack of extreme and extended droughts throughout the last 120 years is the exception and not the rule in this area.
If your prognostications are correct, the grain belt will shift north and west, the driest areas will revert to grassland. The net effect on production will probably be positive once we adapt to The New normal, as we abandon the least productive acres in favor of increasing the most productive acres.
Unfortunately, your prognostications are 180° opposed to what the cycles indicate is occurring. In which case my area will go back to being moose pasture, and moose jaw will reign as the bread basket.
Production across the prairies will drop due to colder temperatures and shrinking arable area.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

. Chucks climate cult coming for you!

Bring it on. I far prefer the attacks from Chuck's climate cult, compared to the attacks from Chuck's covid Cult.
At least it is relevant to agricultural production and marketing.
And at least there is centuries of data available to have an informed debate.
Never thought I'd say this, but it's good to have the old Chuck back.

[jazz]

Will there be any oppertunities if the climate gets warmer in Alberta Chuck?

Yes Canada will be able to bang off 2 crops like South America.

US food production will not keep up and they will finally invade us.

[furrowtickler]

Question for all you guys in Alberta , has your growing season been getting longer by 2-5 weeks per years per what was stated in chucky’s article ? Seriously?
So the growing season in Alberta has be getting longer by a month to 2 months every two years ?
Kinda sounds like that rush of news articles from around the world say that every country was warming at twice the rate as every other country ... lol

There are farmers on here from far southern Alberta to the far north , west and east . A real world snap shot of the past 10 years will be interesting.
Remember, frost free days during the growing season are a huge factor . Plants don’t grow very well below zero. How was the fall frost damage the previous few years in Alberta ? Certainly was a huge factor in this area . This is the first year in at least 5 where corn cobs made almost full maturity. Maybe in Alberta that was not the case with your growing seasons being almost 2 months longer now ?

Our last frost in this area this year was June 20th

[shtferbrains]

A5 show us the data and analysis for the period 1900 -1950. Because unless we have that data, we would have to take your word for the "cherry picked" data.

In other words prove that the period 1900 - 1950 would change the outcome significantly when 1951 -2017 are included.

But you are in agreement with data and analysis from 1951 - 2017 which clearly show a significant change in key climate indicators?

Les Henry presented all the data from Swift Current research station records starting from early 1900's that show no discernable pattern.
Poor old Les is considered amongst his peers the be one of the best at data interpretation but now he it is just labeled climate change denier.


You surly saw that didn't you Chuck.

[GDR]

Question for all you guys in Alberta , has your growing season been getting longer by 2-5 weeks per years per what was stated in chucky’s article ? Seriously?
So the growing season in Alberta has be getting longer by a month to 2 months every two years ?
Kinda sounds like that rush of news articles from around the world say that every country was warming at twice the rate as every other country ... lol

There are farmers on here from far southern Alberta to the far north , west and east . A real world snap shot of the past 10 years will be interesting.
Remember, frost free days during the growing season are a huge factor . Plants don’t grow very well below zero. How was the fall frost damage the previous few years in Alberta ? Certainly was a huge factor in this area . This is the first year in at least 5 where corn cobs made almost full maturity. Maybe in Alberta that was not the case with your growing seasons being almost 2 months longer now ?

Our last frost in this area this year was June 20th

My response is likely not what you are looking for here Furrow. Yes the growing season has gotten longer here, dont seem to get as many of those late May or early June frosts, often some surprising frosts in the fall but lots of years plants are still active until mid to end of October. Yes we have had some September snows recently but historically that's not unusual. When I was a kid nobody grew wheat, now it's a third of everyone's rotation.

[furrowtickler]

My response is likely not what you are looking for here Furrow. Yes the growing season has gotten longer here, dont seem to get as many of those late May or early June frosts, often some surprising frosts in the fall but lots of years plants are still active until mid to end of October. Yes we have had some September snows recently but historically that's not unusual. When I was a kid nobody grew wheat, now it's a third of everyone's rotation.

Thanks for the reply , again just want to hear real world info from farmers that are invested, not statisticians behind a desk .
Wheat varieties are also much early than 30-40 years so that plays a big part
Thanks for the reply

[chuckChuck]

Les Henry presented all the data from Swift Current research station records starting from early 1900's that show no discernable pattern.
Poor old Les is considered amongst his peers the be one of the best at data interpretation but now he it is just labeled climate change denier.


You surly saw that didn't you Chuck.

I took a look at Henry's article in grain news again. It was an interesting and very limited choice of data to look at because he chose only Swift Current and Fargo ND.

His conclusion was "Based on the data assembled, the climate change happening in our area of interest is nothing but good news — it’s wetter and with temperature little changed in the months that really matter. July is the key temperature month for canola and it is a bit cooler. We must not ignore the big bonus to crop production from Mother Nature, with higher CO2 in the atmosphere."

The Alberta site breaks down precipitation in seasonal portions. Although Henry says July precipitation levels have not changed much the Alberta site shows Winter, Summer and fall precipitation levels are down most places in Alberta and Spring levels are up. But overall annual precipitation is down from 1951- 2017. And down dramatically in many locations up to 6 inches lower.

On temperature Henry says July Temperatures have not changed much. The Alberta site shows winter mean annual temperatures have changed the most dramatically upward with the spring, summer and fall temperatures increasing less but none the less rising.

His dataset is much longer than the Alberta Climate records but doesn't go into any detail primarily focusing on precipitation with no mention of evapotranspiration.

So it is hard to compare his data set directly to Alberta's Climate Records shorter climate record.

But his statement that "it’s wetter and with temperature little changed in the months that really matter" seems off the mark. For one thing its not wetter from 1951 to 2017 and it's warmer especially in winter and in the foothills. And its also warmer in the months that matter. He also makes no mention of declining glacier and water resources or the impact on water from increasing temperatures.

If you look at the increased evapotranspiration index it clearly shows there is a large increase in evapotranspiration especially in southern Alberta but everywhere in Alberta. This affects forages, cropping and water resources.

In order to understand climate change you really need a climate scientist to cover this complex subject. Henry only looked at 2 locations and with not much seasonal detail and made a very broad claim that its wetter and temperatures in July are just about the same. The 1951- 2017 data don't support this conclusion and I doubt that Henry's conclusions would stand up against the scrutiny of the many actively researching and publishing climate scientists with all the data and climate resources available to them.

Take a look at the Alberta Climate Records maps and you will get a better understanding of what change looks like in a visual format from the period of 1951- 2017.

[shtferbrains]

I think Les emphasized that he used those two locations because he was sure all the data came from locations that he was confident had not varied in the reported time. No worries about deleted locations that is prominent in all of the more recent data sets.
Or as he likes to say "who's thermometer "

Next time you run into him you can explain the deficiencies you see.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If anyone wants to see another data point. Check out the work Murray Hartman did. He analyzed all the data from the lacombe research station weather station. Specifically chosen because it has remained in the exact same location since the beginning of time and urban sprawl hasn't overtaken it. His data does indicate that the growing season has lengthened, in fact his data indicates that growing conditions have improved by every possible measure over the entire time frame. There were some terrible extremes early in the records in every direction that we are fortunate not to have endured in recent decades.