Canola

[jazz]

Was at my local retailer today he said the top invigors are already sold out.

We grabbed 233 almost a month ago thinking seed would be the first thing to go up in price. Glad we did.

Dont want any new fangled varieties going into next year. Want something tried and true. 2022 is not the year for experimentation.

[ALBERTAFARMER4]

Irrigation doesn't help when it's high 30 degree weather. Evidently both yield and germination are way down.

It definitely helps but I don't think you could put the water down fast enough this year. I have heard of some seed production that did 15bu/ac and 24% sprouted. Bees don't like to work in 37 degrees and I don't blame them.

[furrowtickler]

It definitely helps but I don't think you could put the water down fast enough this year. I have heard of some seed production that did 15bu/ac and 24% sprouted. Bees don't like to work in 37 degrees and I don't blame them.

There were many factors you are correct .
Clean outs probably very high .
The problem with concentrating the majority of seed production in one area . Seed companies are desperately hopeful that contra production from S/A helps fill the gaps in production from southern Alberta.

[furrowtickler]

No news as far as I know, USDA report tomorrow so players may be posiitioning themselves ahead of the report.

Australia, although not a huge player in canola , has production issues .
When the reality of the frost damage in wheat hits , wheat markets should get a boost as well

[farming101]

Ample stocks in the system in Canada. Those holding seed are getting some coverage. Keeping a lid on things

[TOM4CWB]

Ample stocks in the system in Canada. Those holding seed are getting some coverage. Keeping a lid on things
[ATTACH]9137[/ATTACH]

Up goes Canola!!!
Up goes Soybeans!!!
Up goes Wheat!!!

Good luck in finding good yellow pea planting seed, the dry harvest killed large amounts of pea seed. Mechanical Damage 40-50% on many seed lots after cleaning.

We do live in interesting times!

Cheers

[wheatking16]

There is a lot of blue sky above the recent high.

If new highs are made, then my next levels of interest are 970 and 1018, and will reassess if they are reached.

I have no idea when or if that will happen.

The challenge of being deterministic in a probabilistic world.

[ATTACH]8998[/ATTACH]

The first level of interest of 970 now acting as support.

[farming101]

Nov update

[TOM4CWB]

It is interesting to see these statistics, where is the on farm in store inventories, they can't be in this table.

Pre-contracted presold 2021 produced Canola has moved into they system early, what does that leave for stocks of Canola July 31/22?

Inflation and doubling of inputs moves grain movement ahead even further, as tax purchases suddenly are secondary to availability concerns, and the tendency to take 2022 inputs into onfarm storage now 2021.

I was quoted $20/L for transorb that was in stock in shuttles. The Chem distributors are playing hard ball.

Volatility cuts both ways, $20 Canola is needed to break even in 2022? $18 yellow peas?

Much to quander... how to cash flow this new reality... for those who got really shorted 2021... in the really dry area of western Canada... this is magnitudes more disruptive than 2022...

So, when will Nov/Jan 2022-23 break $900/t... it is only 793nov22-794jan 23 today! it was back at $750 yesterday morning...

This is a break out in new crop 2022 Canola...

Cheers

[farming101]

Some needed information was not included.

The chart is a picture of WORLD ending stocks of canola/r apeseed based on monthly reports from the USDA FAS.

FAS estimates Canada ending stocks for Jul 2022 at 600,000 t.
AgCanada is saying 500,000 t