Fertilizer Poll

[jdg364]

Not booking fert yet for spring22, going to wait and ride her out. Soil samples are being done this wkend and then i guess we will see what’s left. I will definitely be mining some $600 phos from the last few years.

On a side note, I’ve bought a piss pot of chem for next year and have it in the shop.

[Flatlander]

Nitrogen bought at $670 with 2/3ds delivered the rest to come next week. Phos $1075. It’s also to come next week. Liquid sulphur $470 not sure when it will arrive, I tried to add an extra load to the order knowing the price would be up but they couldn’t promise delivery this fall for the extra load.

[shtferbrains]

Nitrogen bought at $670 with 2/3ds delivered the rest to come next week. Phos $1075. It’s also to come next week. Liquid sulphur $470 not sure when it will arrive, I tried to add an extra load to the order knowing the price would be up but they couldn’t promise delivery this fall for the extra load.

$670 for 28-0-0?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Right or wrong, I bought all of our needs this week, just before another major jump. December delivery.

I tried to buy late summer, but couldn't get quotes, or could get quotes, but couldn't offer storage at any price till after harvest. Most places still can't even offer a price for any month right now.

Not happy about the prices paid, but I'm more concerned about supply not being available by spring, regardless of price. I'd rather be wrong by paying too much, than wrong by not being able to fertilizer next year.

And realistically, with grain prices essentially doubled, fertilizer still hasn't even caught up, so for those of us with crops this year, it isn't so hard to swallow.

[Flatlander]

$670 for 28-0-0?

46-0-0, several weeks ago. Just being delivered now.

[Hamloc]

Right or wrong, I bought all of our needs this week, just before another major jump. December delivery.

I tried to buy late summer, but couldn't get quotes, or could get quotes, but couldn't offer storage at any price till after harvest. Most places still can't even offer a price for any month right now.

Not happy about the prices paid, but I'm more concerned about supply not being available by spring, regardless of price. I'd rather be wrong by paying too much, than wrong by not being able to fertilizer next year.

And realistically, with grain prices essentially doubled, fertilizer still hasn't even caught up, so for those of us with crops this year, it isn't so hard to swallow.

You certainly could be correct, my only concern is fertilizer and oil and gas numbers remind me of 2008. One difference is this time the price run up on fertilizer is supposedly lack of supply and supply chain problems. In 2008 it was more based on higher corn prices.

[furrowtickler]

Right or wrong, I bought all of our needs this week, just before another major jump. December delivery.

I tried to buy late summer, but couldn't get quotes, or could get quotes, but couldn't offer storage at any price till after harvest. Most places still can't even offer a price for any month right now.

Not happy about the prices paid, but I'm more concerned about supply not being available by spring, regardless of price. I'd rather be wrong by paying too much, than wrong by not being able to fertilizer next year.

And realistically, with grain prices essentially doubled, fertilizer still hasn't even caught up, so for those of us with crops this year, it isn't so hard to swallow.

Right now I don’t think there is a right or wrong
Do what’s best if you can afford to for your farm
No one should judge , these are strange times

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You certainly could be correct, my only concern is fertilizer and oil and gas numbers remind me of 2008. One difference is this time the price run up on fertilizer is supposedly lack of supply and supply chain problems. In 2008 it was more based on higher corn prices.

My usual retailer is convinced that this is 2008 all over again, and he did the right thing then and remained in business, while many independants bought ahead and lost the business when the price dropped.

I posted elsewhere that my neighbor who until very recently analyzed nat gas supply and demand for a major, expects nat gas in North America to be lower by spring, and therefore fertilizer with it.

I can see nat gas being lower, but not sure that translates into cheaper local fertilizer. The rest of the world will still be short, and still have high gas prices. Imports will be too expensive to bring in, and our products may be exported to fill the voids elsewhere in the world. If we have even caught up to demand by then.

2008 was irrational speculation in all commodities. A lot of bandwagon jumping, regartdless if it was justified or not. Today is a true supply shortage, likely to get worse before it gets better. The economy could collapse tomorrow, but it won't significantly reduce the demand for fertilizer or even the associated food.

I seeded the 2020 crop ( and some of the 2019 crop held over) with cheap fertilizer, then sold it for very high prices. Seeded the 2021 crop with still cheap pre bought fertilizer, and look to sell it for record prices again. If I buy over priced fert for the 2022 crop, then sell the 2022 crop at long term average prices, then I'm only underwater 1 out of 3+ years. Not bad odds.

[mcfarms]

Tough call for sure, but in 2008 we didn't have China halt exports of phos, nor did we have a big countervailing duty on some of the other biggest exporters which has frozen imports into Nola. Add what could be a winter of high nat gas prices certainly not a year to be unhedged in some form. You don't have to own fert physicals but I'd own some paper or some gas heavy producers stocks or options.

[furrowtickler]