Canola Price

[Rareearth]

I wonder how much / how many tons or what % of the canola crush last year was bought from the trade/line companies etc vs direct from the farmer?

Truckers sure like that business

[LWeber]

Sold 2/3 of my canola today for $19 and change.

Not fcking around with this. Canola can be drawn down by the larger macro elements more than supply demand complex right now.

World is too interlinked now. China and US slowdown.

Did you sell cash buy paper?

[Guest]

Seeing lots of $26.50here
And $28.40 for non gmo
Crazy !

[LWeber]

Seeing lots of $26.50here
And $28.40 for non gmo
Crazy !

Friday 27 traded old and 23 new.
27 to 19 is $352.00/MT

1200 acres 25 bpa = 680/MT x 352 is close to 1/4 million.

Drive for show - market for dough....

[poorboy]

Anyone who can predict the price 100% of the time would not be on this forum.

I personally thank everyone for giving their opinions and reasons why they think the market is going up or down or why it might be a good time to sell or hold. They are all just opinions and I read them and then make my own decision.

For everyone else complaining about poor marketing calls, you should have to post your own marketing advice for everyone else to read and comment on. It is real easy to be wishy washy and not commit, but much harder to actually post numbers and real opinions.

And hopefully everyone who posts marketing opinions and thoughts is humble enough to realize that their opinions and thoughts may not be correct.

These are sure interesting times. I never thought that canola would get to $20/bus in my lifetime, let alone trying to now decide if $27/bus is a good price. Hopefully this is the new golden age of agriculture. It has been the poor unwanted industry forever.

[jazz]

Did you sell cash buy paper?

Nope. Bought oil stocks in November. And the DXY in January.

Still don’t think I will ever hold physical canola over the winter again.

[LWeber]

Nope. Bought oil stocks in November. And the DXY in January.

Still don’t think I will ever hold physical canola over the winter again.

Hard to hit control alt delete on the memory banks of that bin.
If you took equal value to your canola; it was still a hedge and you're ahead of the game.

Best,

L

[sawfly1]

Being lazy paid off , still have some wheat to sell ,canola not so much 25$ cleaned me out. But look at the price of stuff , to the moon , bought a 30 ft . CCIL swather 1972 for 6000$ new sold it 3 years later
For 9600$
This is a repeat of then .new grain auger that neighbor snagged for 12, few years ago is now 20 , and new stock is 27.
God help those on a fixed income.

[wrongway]

Sold 2/3 of my canola today for $19 and change.

Not fcking around with this. Canola can be drawn down by the larger macro elements more than supply demand complex right now.

World is too interlinked now. China and US slowdown.

virtually every trade made since then has been a loosing one if you measure it against the current price.

What gets lost in the whole discussion is if the trade made a profit and you use that profit to improve your business. If you sold 19 canola and bought 600 urea i suggest you actually made more money than storing canola and holding all that risk.

There are many ways to reown with paper and that can be very lucrative as well but requires at least 2 more tough decisions, what and when to buy/sell and when to lift that hedge. Also putting on stop losses has been fraught with difficulties as well given current volatility. Lifting it too early or too late will cause as much emotional turmoil as the initial decision to sell canola, maybe even more. speaking from experience here.

make the decision, take notes why and move on. revisit your decision at a later date and evaluate and learn.

[SASKFARMER]

Or you took the Cash Advance in Fall bought 600 urea and then sold your canola in February for $26.85 instead of 19 who made more money. Just asking for a friend.

Selling early just fed them and that's why they didn't want the actual yields known early.