Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[jazz]

Global commodity price trend is now down (particularly industrials) from iron ore, copper, precious metals This is incoming 'deflation in-progress' folks. And this is occurring despite mass money printing, go-figure.

So how effective is central bank policy since 2008? And at what cost?

There is speculative money hiding in commodities expecting inflation. Thats what could turn the tide quickly more than supply demand imbalances.

The US has a some critical numbers to report on GDP and such but after that, all bets are off. The economy will be as far back as it can be which still wont be where it was pre covid. And how much more debt can be printed up. Place like Canada is at the end of the rope, but US, I dont know. They have a debt ceiling fight coming up in a month or so.

[errolanderson]

Lack of supply is affecting everything. You cant buy something that's not for sale and when one component is unavailable it makes all the other parts of the same thing not for sale either. It's not just vehicles, its the whole supply chain broken, I'm really surprised in this modern time that it can't be ramped up faster.

Ocean container shipping rates are up 10X, but unsustainable (IMO). Once the supply chain starts to normalize, these rates will plunge back to reality. To me, this is not inflation, this is a squeeze that will come 'n go ie; commodities . . . .

[furrowtickler]

Lack of supply is affecting everything. You cant buy something that's not for sale and when one component is unavailable it makes all the other parts of the same thing not for sale either. It's not just vehicles, its the whole supply chain broken, I'm really surprised in this modern time that it can't be ramped up faster.

North America screwed its self by relying too much on China. Now we are all paying for the big cooperations profit margins over the past 10-20 years .

Shipping jobs overseas , helping developing countries , ie India , China , Malaysia .... big part of Obama’s dream .
Now what ...... we destroyed industry in North America. It will take years to get that back .
Rather than look after our own citizens who are jobless , homeless and First Nations get decent jobs they gave all that away and maxed out social assistance meanwhile destroying wealth creating industry to pay for it all .
It’s left a mess our kids and grandkids will pay for .
Sad reality hitting home now

[blackpowder]

I don't know what to think.
Consumer inflation that I see has me concerned. As farmers we forget we are in the top 5-10%. Justin's new middle class, which now includes everyone else but the destitute.
Imagining my semi retirement, I see most people living quite modestly in theirs. Remember those who retired in the mid 70s taking on employment in the 80s?, I do.

On another note, local terminal offering 9- near 10$ wheat for fall 22.
I'm not certain of anyone's crystal ball..

[jazz]

On another note, local terminal offering 9- near 10$ wheat for fall 22.
I'm not certain of anyone's crystal ball..

BP. I was thinking along the same lines as you. Anyone with a crop in the bin right now, some hedging skills and the balls to forward contract to 2022 could set themselves up for a lifetime.

[shtferbrains]

Global commodity price trend is now down (particularly industrials) from iron ore, copper, precious metals This is incoming 'deflation in-progress' folks. And this is occurring despite mass money printing, go-figure.

So how effective is central bank policy since 2008? And at what cost?

Back in the spring Chicoms announced they were going to do everything they could do as a central planer to control or moderate commodity prices.
They certainly built stocks at lower prices last winter.
They seem to be experts at manipulating markets although maybe not on such a wide range of products.
How would you know how much influence they are having?

[Austrian Economics]

Keep an eye on debt defaults, not rising prices. Once those debt dominoes fall, the pandemic will seem like a sideshow.

[canolacrazy]

Back in the spring Chicoms announced they were going to do everything they could do as a central planer to control or moderate commodity prices.
They certainly built stocks at lower prices last winter.
They seem to be experts at manipulating markets although maybe not on such a wide range of products.
How would you know how much influence they are having?

yes, the chicoms have stocked up on all commodities in the last couple of years. with the extreme

weakness coming from the white house recently, there is a real concern that taiwan is china's next target.

if so, that is the black swan event to start things unravelling.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the PMI is dropping.
Demand was pulled forward drastically more than it should have been due to shortages perceived and real, and price increases on almost everything. Prudent purchasers had forsaken the usual just in time delivery instead stocking up on any and everything before the price went any higher or it wasn't available. Driving up the PMI beyond where it should have been.

Now we have the double whammy of having the excess stockpiled inventory to use up, and falling prices (at least for most raw commodities) prompting purchasers to delay new purchases as long as possible, and living hand to mouth knowing that it will be cheaper tomorrow than it was today.

Where it all shakes out when normalcy returns, if it ever does, I'm not so sure.

[Old Cowzilla]

A lot of that stock piled inventory is crap people don't need anyway and have forgot about buying it by now. Containers full of throwaway christmas lights block containers full of ag parts in the system. Does everybody need a TV in every room while they watch programs on their phone