Barley shortage

[shtferbrains]

If you can sell a load of barley for $11.50 I would do at least one to take a picture of the cheque to hang on the wall.

[helmsdale]

If you can sell a load of barley for $11.50 I would do at least one to take a picture of the cheque to hang on the wall.

Everyone has FOMO this year with whatever crop they can harvest. Alot of guys missed out on the rally not only on last years production, but this current years production before it was even in the ground. Nobody may want to admit in coffee row that they're selling now rather than holding, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that selling early this year could be similar to locking the bins last year. There's alot of fear on the buyers side, and greed on the sellers side already priced into this market.

A black swan is just as likely to come along and knock us off our lofty perch, as more bad news is to lift us higher.

There is also likely to be significant attempts at substitution for current high priced commodities. They may take a few months to kick in, but buyers aren't going to be held captive forever.

If there's a chance to lock something in at record high prices I certainly wouldn't hold it against a guy. Alternatively, one could just put it in the bin and HODL...

[shtferbrains]

Disappointed buyers make other arrangements. We all do. You have to if you want to stay in business.

[WiltonRanch]

What about Ukrainian or FSU barley? Seemed at one time they dumped a lot of barley on the world market. Even DDG’s or whatever else that’s more cost effective. At worst they don’t buy calves and save their silage.

[shtferbrains]

Cargill will do whatever it takes to hold on to their margins being made on the livestock side.

They want to run at max capacity as they are making windfall profits. Maybe better than BSE. They won't let supply of cattle be an issue.
It's all a do over for Cargill and the take more margin every time.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Uh oh, a big scary train full of corn is coming from the USA! Better panic sell now.

How I remember 2009 here at least, is we had a temporary spike in mid summer for feedgrains due to the drought. As soon as unit trains full of corn started rolling in, price fell back to where it was before the drought concerns.
But I don't think that drought was as widespread as this one.
And this year, the is no extra corn from the closest states, as there was that time.

[wade]

The boys at feedlot alley have brought corn in the past. Hated to see feed grains come into
the area but with the elevators unloading corn here, they sent them back full trains of wheat, etc.
Was nice in that they kept current with grain contracts here when I read that other locations were late. The one time I did ask, it was E Canada corn.
Availability of cars, unload facilities, etc. are sometimes issues.
Wonder if elevators aren't going want to bring corn in so as to make elevation, handling also?
And also the trains

[jazz]

Nobody may want to admit in coffee row that they're selling now rather than holding, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that selling early this year could be similar to locking the bins last year. There's alot of fear on the buyers side, and greed on the sellers side already priced into this market.

...

I am not a big farmer or the best farmer but I find my instincts in this game are pretty good and I am on the same page as you helmsdale. My gut is sell it all and take the win.

Raising prices won't create canola out of thin air now.

Supply and demand fundamentals are pretty much baked in for the next few yrs.

But if this fake covid stimulus zombie junkie economy shts the bed it could take commodities right back down with it.

[Blaithin]

The boys at feedlot alley have brought corn in the past. Hated to see feed grains come into
the area but with the elevators unloading corn here, they sent them back full trains of wheat, etc.
Was nice in that they kept current with grain contracts here when I read that other locations were late. The one time I did ask, it was E Canada corn.
Availability of cars, unload facilities, etc. are sometimes issues.
Wonder if elevators aren't going want to bring corn in so as to make elevation, handling also?
And also the trains

Yes they’ll bring in corn if they can sell it.

But how short is American and Eastern corn? They aren’t bumper crops by any means. And we’re already seeing American dollars come up here and get forages because of our low dollar, so can our lower dollar tempt American grain up here past their drought areas?

[bucket]

Yes they’ll bring in corn if they can sell it.

But how short is American and Eastern corn? They aren’t bumper crops by any means. And we’re already seeing American dollars come up here and get forages because of our low dollar, so can our lower dollar tempt American grain up here past their drought areas?

How????

Wouldn't it be easier to move the cows to the feed than the feed to the cows????