Status of Keystone XL?

[Sodbuster]

Thank god canola and wheat dont go to the US.

Oil falls in the same category, we need pipelines going east and west to ocean ports where it can be sold or refined at world prices instead of the US companies stealing it at what ever price they want to bid on any given day. I’m thinking maybe Biden did us a favour, we just need a government to pass policy so we can complete pipelines

[jazz]

By the way I doubt the weasel words put in Trump's executive order will exempt the US government from liability under the USMCA. Otherwise Executive Orders would be used regularly to subvert the trade deals and a trade deal wouldn't be worth the paper it is written on.

Except the USMCA is a federal deal and to challenge under it, only a country can do that, not a province, so skippy would have to initiate it and he sure as hell wont.

Wait until the buy american policy takes hold though. If that gets rammed through or tarrifs applied on our energy and manufacured goods, then holy hell will we be in for a ride. Canada would fold in a day.

Thank god canola a wheat dont go to the US.

yep, they don't trust the "science" of all the studies that tried , but couldn't find anything wrong with keystone
its all about getting that oil back on rails and into buffets pocket

[LEP]

So why are Kenney and Moe so mad about the loss of the planned KXL? Since they should know we will have enough pipeline capacity in the works, it looks like political grandstanding and theatre.

And how do you blame Trudeau and the Liberals when they rescued TMX?

Alot of what Moe and Kenney say is pure politics designed to stir up resentment.

It always makes me laugh at the ridiculous thought that chuckles can look at the decision of a multibillion dollar project by a multibillion dollar company and think he knows more than they do. This thing has been analyzed and studied for years. If they can make a business case how can anyone say otherwise.

It is between the company and it's shareholders to decide if they can make a business case for another pipeline. Not some biased outsider with zero cash on the line.

By the way I doubt the weasel words put in Trump's executive order will exempt the US government from liability under the USMCA. Otherwise Executive Orders would be used regularly to subvert the trade deals and a trade deal wouldn't be worth the paper it is written on.

[jazz]

"Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world?" For that matter, what investment is going to be competitive in a world that seems hell bent on committing economic suicide?

Better question, what form of energy is dense enough to forge this new renewable economy which is just unicorns right now.

I would bet all these billionaires are playing both sides of the coin. Starve one source until the price becomes untenable and people are protesting and lining up for fuel, then present the new solution and everybody will demand it.

If fracking is banned the oil sands will become more valuable in the near term. Its the only source of oil in NA that wont need more drilling or licenses to expand.

[littledoggie]

"Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world?" For that matter, what investment is going to be competitive in a world that seems hell bent on committing economic suicide?

A good question for the Davos crowd.

[chuckChuck]

That's an exaggeration to say the least.

Just because we are transitioning to cleaner energy sources to fight climate change doesn't mean the economy will fail. There will still be demand for all types of commodities, products and services.

Can you tell the difference as a consumer between renewable hydro, wind, solar, gas and coal fired electricity? They all do the same work.

[Austrian Economics]

"Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world?" For that matter, what investment is going to be competitive in a world that seems hell bent on committing economic suicide?

[chuckChuck]

“We will be over-piped assuming the other pipelines go ahead on schedule,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Oberstoetter. “If you add them all up, you can make the argument KXL was not needed.”

So was KXL a make work project? Surely we should invest in infrastucture that is needed rather than build excess capacity in pipelines that may be underused or white elephants in a few decades under net zero plans.

[bucket]

Alot of what Moe and Kenney say is pure politics designed to stir up resentment.

It doesn't take alot of brains to understand the value of a pipeline....people that resent this have jobs and brains and know who is footing the bill for this...

[shtferbrains]

So no need to ship all those unit trains of crude at much higher prices and much higher risk?

[chuckChuck]

Reuters is the one quoting industry analysts saying there is enough pipeline capacity in the works.

TMX will allow Canadian oil to be shipped to the US or anywhere the market wants it.

Jazz, You should stick to political and pandemic forecasting! Your record speaks for its self! LOL

[chuckChuck]

So why are Kenney and Moe so mad about the loss of the planned KXL? Since they should know we will have enough pipeline capacity in the works, it looks like political grandstanding and theatre.

And how do you blame Trudeau and the Liberals when they rescued TMX?

Alot of what Moe and Kenney say is pure politics designed to stir up resentment.

[jazz]

Ha chuck, how much do you know about the oil industry except what cbc tells you.

KXL had a avenue to US gulf coast so some of that crude to be refined and/or tankered out to world markets.

It wasnt supposed to go all to the US. Called a swing market which closes the heavy differential spread thus increasing the value of Canadian product without us having to invest in refining here and bypassing unfriendlies like BC and Que.

You are massively uninformed.

[chuckChuck]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-even-without-keystone-xl-us-set-for-record-canadian-oil-imports/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-even-without-keystone-xl-us-set-for-record-canadian-oil-imports/

Even without Keystone XL, U.S. set for record Canadian oil imports
Nia Williams and Devika Krishna Kumar
CALGARY and NEW YORK
Reuters
Published 2 days ago
Updated January 22, 2021

The Keystone XL pipeline project may be dead, but the United States is still poised to pull in record imports of Canadian oil in coming years through other pipelines that are in the midst of expanding.

U.S. President Joe Biden canceled Keystone XL’s permit on his first day in office Wednesday, dealing a death blow to a long-gestating project that would have carried 830,000 barrels per day of heavy oil sands crude from Alberta to Nebraska.

Environmental activists and indigenous communities hailed the move, but traders and analysts said U.S.-Canada pipelines will have more than enough capacity to handle increasing volumes of crude out of Canada, the primary foreign supplier of oil to the United States.

Currently, Canada exports about 3.8 million bpd to the United States, according to U.S. Energy Department data. Analysts expect that to rise to between 4.2 million and 4.4 million bpd over the next few years. Pipeline expansions currently in progress will add more than 950,000 bpd of export capacity for Canadian producers before 2025, according to Rystad Energy.

Canada’s Energy Regulator says there is enough capacity currently to export more than 4 million bpd to the United States.

Biden’s administration has set a goal of moving towards decarbonization and reducing the country’s reliance on oil and gas and cutting harmful air pollutants. Most of the nation’s energy still comes from fossil fuels.

“Whatever limited benefit that Keystone was projected to provide now has to be obviously reconsidered with the economy of today,” said Gina McCarthy, Biden’s leading domestic climate policy coordinator at the White House.

Even without Keystone, however, the United States now relies on Canada for more than half of its imported oil. Several of the lines carrying that crude are in the midst of expansions.

Enbridge Inc’s Line 3 replacement project is in the process of doubling its capacity, which will allow it to deliver about 760,000 bpd of crude from Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin, by the end of this year.

Canada’s government is also expanding the state-owned Trans Mountain line by 590,000 bpd to 890,000 bpd. That line terminates at the Port of Vancouver, where it should be able to deliver barrels via tankers to the United States.

Meanwhile, TC Energy received U.S. approval last year to expand its existing Keystone 590,000-bpd line - located far from the proposed Keystone XL - which would add an additional 170,000 bpd into the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.

“We will be over-piped assuming the other pipelines go ahead on schedule,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Oberstoetter. “If you add them all up, you can make the argument KXL was not needed.”

Construction underway on Trans Mountain and Line 3 could still be held up by environmental protests, but unlike Keystone XL, both pipelines have cleared legal and regulatory hurdles.

Oil production in western Canada will rise in 2021 to a new record of 4.45 million bpd, RBN Energy estimates, up from 3.9 million bpd in 2020, most of which will be exported to the United States.

Canada is the world’s fourth-biggest crude producer, but has been grappling for years with congestion on pipelines. That caused a glut of oil in storage tanks in Alberta, driving prices down, and spurring the province to impose production curtailments to drain record inventories.

Those curtailments were lifted in November, and production has been rising ever since. Even as production is rising again, pipeline companies have boosted efficiency on existing pipelines through the use of drag-reducing agents.

“While the politics around KXL will continue to reverberate for some time, the reality is that western Canada - for the first time in recent memory - may soon reach a juncture at which it has excess oil export capacity,” Rystad Energy’s vice president for North American shale Thomas Liles said in a note.