Markets Party Like the 1920's with an Economy of the 1930's

[canolacrazy]

Here's a market comparison of price changes from December 30, 2019 to December 30, 2020.

The Winners . . . .

Bitcoin . . . . . . . . . . . . . up 400%
Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . up 37%
Kansas City Wheat . . . . up 36%
Canola . . . . . . . . . . . . . up 32%
Minneapolis spring wheat up 24%
Gold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . up 24%
Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . up 21%
CME Oats . . . . . . . . . . . up 19%
Soyoil . . . . . . . . . . . . . up 17%
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . up 10%
Dow Jones . . . . . . . . . . up 7%
Toronto TSX Index . . . . . up 3%
Spot Cdn Dollar . . . . . . . up 2%


The Losers . . . .

Crude Oil . . . . . . . . . . . down 33%
Live Cattle . . . . . . . . . . down 9%
U.S. Dollar . . . . . . . . . . down 7%
Lean Hogs . . . . . . . . . . down 6%
Feeder Cattle . . . . . . . . down 3%

The question that has to be asked here, that no one is talking about. Why is bitcoin the best investment in the last year? By far. there is no faith in fiat currency anymore. some of north america's largest companies are converting their balance sheets to crypto, and not just bitcoin. Crypto currencies are just a fraction of the stock and bond markets at this time. this time next year those who are purchasing bitcoin today will probably be sitting on a big capital gain. i've got december 30 2021 marked down to compare to today's price of over $28,000 u.s.

[beaverdam]

The question that has to be asked here, that no one is talking about. Why is bitcoin the best investment in the last year? By far. there is no faith in fiat currency anymore. some of north america's largest companies are converting their balance sheets to crypto, and not just bitcoin. Crypto currencies are just a fraction of the stock and bond markets at this time. this time next year those who are purchasing bitcoin today will probably be sitting on a big capital gain. i've got december 30 2021 marked down to compare to today's price of over $28,000 u.s.

$36,828.55 CAD

https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin

In CAD, above chart can be changed for time line.

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Below, chart can be changed for time line or currency.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin

[Quadtrack]

Look at the mandates for pension funds, mainly pensions for government workers. It's common for them to have a legal requirement for significant portions of their portfolios to be invested in government debt. The interest on that is effectively zero now.

Rent is following interest rates as a proportion of land value. In other words, land values are appreciating at a far faster rate than rent, as is generally the case. These pension funds typically have to flip the land after a few years for a capital gain which the pension fund then doles out to retirees to be consumed. None of this is sustainable.

Farmland cash rent has been 3.5% of purchase price here for at least 15 years. Still is right now.

[beaverdam]

Farmland cash rent has been 3.5% of purchase price here for at least 15 years. Still is right now.

What general area are you at?

[Quadtrack]

What general area are you at?

North of Saskatoon

I think we will hit the same GDP/Debt wall we did when Paul Martin had to take drastic steps. Probably within 2021. Govt debt will continue to pile on next year, and GDP will shrink. Current finance minister has no clue.
If that happens, devaluing CND will not be enough to rescue the economy with oil industry under siege by this govt. things will spiral downward and interest rates will need to rise to try and stem the bleeding. Some very dark days ahead in Canazuala.

[Sodbuster]

Biggest difference is that today’s prime interest rate is less than 2% versus over 8% when Paul Martin was finance minister. Still no excuse to spend like a drunken sailor and it will catch up with them soon. One of the biggest reasons for stock market going up is there aren’t many alternatives to make money with current interest and bond markets near 0%, I will welcome the day when interest rates start and stock market to get back to normal valuations.

[ajl]

Biggest difference is that today’s prime interest rate is less than 2% versus over 8% when Paul Martin was finance minister. Still no excuse to spend like a drunken sailor and it will catch up with them soon. One of the biggest reasons for stock market going up is there aren’t many alternatives to make money with current interest and bond markets near 0%, I will welcome the day when interest rates start and stock market to get back to normal valuations.

Interest rates this low also makes real estate prices this high. Are you ready for the day in which your real estate is at 1/3 of today's price? Canuckistan has an overgrown finance industry which would be in a tail spin if real estate values ever slumped so that is one of the major reasons for all this money printing.

[jazz]

Trudeau was already adding massive debt before covid was even on the radar screen. Curve doesn't look much different before or after. Added $200B before covid and $400B since? WTF? Am I reading this right?

Where is the rest coming from? where is it going to? errol? AE?

[farming101]

225B in G of C bonds is sitting on the inflated B of C balance sheet
Yellow line is bonds. Pink line is Payments Canada liabilities

[Sodbuster]

Interest rates this low also makes real estate prices this high. Are you ready for the day in which your real estate is at 1/3 of today's price? Canuckistan has an overgrown finance industry which would be in a tail spin if real estate values ever slumped so that is one of the major reasons for all this money printing.

Absolutely, I’d like to see the banks prime rate to be around 5%-6%. This would make buyers a little more cautious when buying and would also give people a little more security for their saving instead of being at the mercy of the stock market. The housing and land market is just nuts right now, lower prices would be a good thing.