Canola

[errolanderson]

Hedgers note: New Crop Canola Protection . . . November $515/MT put options traded for $15/MT today. This guarantees $500/MT canola for next fall - delivered basis without production or delivery obligation.
No risk of margin call . . . .

[Oliver88]

Hedgers note: New Crop Canola Protection . . . November $515/MT put options traded for $15/MT today. This guarantees $500/MT canola for next fall - delivered basis without production or delivery obligation.
No risk of margin call . . . .

For that $15/tonne of price insurance, how would this compare with January and March futures?

[ajl]

Sold poor quality HRS and a bit of new crop canola today. Canola was at 11.50 Oct/Nov 2021. Hesitant to pre price because weather has been so insane in this area around Edmonton for a number of years now but 11.50 off combine couldn't pass up. Who knows what will happen. Wheat has issues with sprouting and frost damage so feed wheat price same as gradable and no discounts got it done. Think it makes more sense to price '21 canola than old crop now.

[malleefarmer]

Canola here eased about $20 last week 10 days.

Today pulled back another $7

Buyers pulled bids from lunchtime till late afternoon only about 2 operating.

Got a mate who works at a huge family farm that has been buying up abandoned dairies. These guys have expected canola crop of 8,000 tonnes. Mind boggling. Just started would be all contracted at 5he highs.

4 combines then another 8000 acres barley after that.

All go

[errolanderson]

Canola here eased about $20 last week 10 days.

Today pulled back another $7

Buyers pulled bids from lunchtime till late afternoon only about 2 operating.

Got a mate who works at a huge family farm that has been buying up abandoned dairies. These guys have expected canola crop of 8,000 tonnes. Mind boggling. Just started would be all contracted at 5he highs.

4 combines then another 8000 acres barley after that.

All go

Buckle-up . . . Improved South American rainfall . . . now larger Brazil soybean / corn production estimates.

[Rareearth]

One does have to wonder what sales have been made, and what % of the crop is unsold?

Mallee do you guys have any such stats?

[farming101]

While percentage sold is good to know; it is also good to perceive whether demand is intensifying or waning.
If demand gets covered and buyers back off it matters not that farmers have some left to sell.

[crusher]

I'm 85% sold on a 60% of normal crop. A little drop will help me buy back some hedges put on a long time ago. I mean a short time ago but a long way down.

[malleefarmer]

One does have to wonder what sales have been made, and what % of the crop is unsold?

Mallee do you guys have any such stats?

Probably find out.

My guess would be mostly sold some of the later huge yielding areas are just starting but I’m sure they foward contracted when prices were $600 plus base price

[Rareearth]

I agree 101,

I’m certain that there has been big farmer selling into the deferred months ( for the price premium and cash flow needs later, seed, fert, land payments etc) so Grain companies will have some coverage. The grain companies will tell us they always hedge sales, some how I don’t believe this (currency probably). Are they net long or short? Big sales over normal or not, that’s the true measure of demand, show us the data.

It’s easy to talk about demand, record shipping volumes, excellent railway cooperation, etc.

If our May rainfall is half of the rain we received in July and August, expect 12,000 MT canola production. The domestic crushers might need to switch to soybeans, or...... ...? This is the missing narrative today. Yes it’s early, that record snow fall blew into Minnisota, we can see black dirt in our fields. Snow contributes to sloughs - Not field surface or subsoil moisture! Snow is a pain, we live and survive with growing season precipitation.

We do live in interesting times ( not the curse)