Canola

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Crush margin yesterday was 37.73 CAD lower than a month ago.

So which has to give?

[farmaholic]

So which has to give?

Historical levels would answer that question.

[farmaholic]

Its sure rocking and rolling.

[farming101]

Keep an eye on the basis for an indication..

2008: May futures hit 769.90, meanwhile cash prices were quoted on Feb 27 at 630.49. A basis of -139.41
2013: July futures hit 650.80, meanwhile cash prices were quoted on May 22 at 653.44. A basis of +2.64
Canola values were very good for much of 2012 as well because of the lower yields expected that year and world oilseed demand/shortage

Two very different years but futures were very high each year.
2008 Financial crunch
2013 Oilseed supply crunch
basis behaving more like 2013

Export values for the years mentioned:

[fjlip]

13.31, Mar Apr May, Pioneer Wadena. These are 19 cents higher than Yorkton Crush prices.

[farmaholic]

Both those years values held up quite nicely until the July/Aug timeframe, probably when it looked like new crop supplies would be secure and adequate.

What did 09 and 14 production look like.

[Blaithin]

$13/bus delvd to my local terminal whats every one else seeing?

Us Dollar Index with a 89 handle.

Seen guys saying 14 and even 15 but don’t know where or when.

[farming101]

Both those years values held up quite nicely until the July/Aug timeframe, probably when it looked like new crop supplies would be secure and adequate.

What did 09 and 14 production look like.

09 crop was adequate except very late. That was the year millions of acres were snowed under then the weather turned around and guys were taking it nearly dry in November. 08 crop was alright too.

13 was a good crop. Was just as well to sell it all off the combine. 14 was down a little but the carry over from 13 held prices down.

[rumrocks]

Just looking back at historical price of canola, it was $138.00/bu in today's dollars in Nov. 1974, and probably only lasted a few minutes and was never offered at elevators.

[wheatsnowcanola]

Heard of $15 somewhere in Alta. Anyone know the details?