CAD

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Is strength in the CAD typically and essentially an indicator of strength ( betting on further strength) of oil?

[jazz]

Well see . . . . currencies always a moving target.

Sounds like people positioning for a Biden hatchet job on the economy.

I am still negative on the CAD and you dont need to even bother with the USD to do that. You can use equity funds to hedge that position.

Here is a chart of the top S&P funds in canada, XSP is hedged to USD, ZSP is not. You can see the currency diversion all this year, narrowing now but will it hold? Canadas GDP is still 10% lower than where it should be even with the economy fully open in Q3, and now its partially closed again. That will reflect in the numbers shortly.

Is strength in the CAD typically and essentially an indicator of strength ( betting on further strength) of oil?

Looks to be decoupling now and without investment in our oil industry might be broken for good.

[bucket]

Do our grain exports help the dollar??????

[errolanderson]

Is strength in the CAD typically and essentially an indicator of strength ( betting on further strength) of oil?

Yes . . . and oil's strength is also tied to decline in USD. COVID vaccine optimism supporting travel stocks. Talk of $50 to $60 per barrel if travel restarts . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yes . . . and oil's strength is also tied to decline in USD. COVID vaccine optimism supporting travel stocks. Talk of $50 to $60 per barrel if travel restarts . . . .

Historically that would be a reasonable relationship. But with the US no longer a significant net importer, shouldn't the price of oil be nearly inconsequential to their economic fortunes?

[TASFarms]

I read a couple weeks ago that the US dollar is going to lose 20% of its value in the next year or so. I’m thinking Maybe the Canadian dollar will gain 20%

[jazz]

I read a couple weeks ago that the US dollar is going to lose 20% of its value in the next year or so. I’m thinking Maybe the Canadian dollar will gain 20%

Not sure what the catalyst would be for those scenarios.

Betting against the loon is a win win situation. If it falls, commodities will benefit and you can short it against the USD. if it rises, you will get another chance like 2011 to grab US assets and property at par.

[farming101]

30 month high in the offing today...

[beaverdam]

30 month high in the offing today...

Normally, with a rising CND you'd see a widening basis.

Nice to both rising at the same time.

[errolanderson]

Kiwi currency, Aussie and loonie all fired up . . . . New Zealand dollar approaching 71 cents . . . Aussie breaking above 75 cents . . . March Cdn testing next resistance of 78.70 cents U.S. Heavy resistance for loonie now seen @ 79.80 cents (for what it's worth).