Seasonal Canola

[farming101]

Not a holiday in the USA, today !

Commodity markets open and Beans are up over 8 cents on the near months and bean oil up 48 cents.

Yes, up 50 cents or so. Note, some traders may start to adjust their long/short ratio at this price or higher

[farmaholic]

Yes, up 50 cents or so. Note, some traders may start to adjust their long/short ratio at this price or higher

Please explain.

So I don't display my ignorance, I'm not going to try and post what I think/guess you're getting at.

[farming101]

Please explain.

So I don't display my ignorance, I'm not going to try and post what I think/guess you're getting at.

Many speculators in Bean oil(large and small) will be holding profitable positions now. There has been a huge increase in their net long position starting in June. But as of last week spec trade was holding short positions of over 44 thousand contracts(long 180K+). It is purely a guess but there may be a case for starting to bank some profits at these levels. Likely wont see it till there is a pullback. Speculators love speculating

[farmaholic]

Greed and obstinance are not good marketing qualities, I have both.

I guess I guy could price it all but I don't want to "buy paper" to stay in the market. Although being long physical is speculation too.

[farming101]

December could move to nearly 38/cwt based on today's strength. It would be ripe for a pullback at that level.
And remember, as usual the reality may turn out to be somewhat different

[farmaholic]

It's a long marketing year yet, about 10 months before new crop canola is available in Canada.... I'm sure there might be afew resistance and support tests before that time comes.

Then there's beans.

[farmaholic]

Crush margins?

Soybean meal and oil per "ton" prices minus crush expense minus soybean grain cost seems to equal pretty healthy margins.

Got to wonder what the canola crush margin is at? Domestic, foreign after seed is landed at export destination.

[farmaholic]

Canuckistan S/U ending stocks..... about 10%???????????????

Remember we have a domestic and export market to service.

Technical versus fundamental price direction?'

[Oliver88]

Hovering around $14 for Feb/Mar delivery (specialty canola)

[farming101]

Canuckistan S/U ending stocks..... about 10%???????????????

Remember we have a domestic and export market to service.

Technical versus fundamental price direction?'

Technical trading and additionally, dealing with uncertainty, influence price and volatility on a daily basis.

Fundamentals influence prices only occasionally based on new news, verified news or old news that gets revised