November Canola

[farming101]

Here is a 15 year monthly July continuation chart

Note: the chart is set to roll at the beginning of the last week in June

[macdon02]

Next "window" for a downturn is just before the combines roll. Remember 2013

[farming101]

Next "window" for a downturn is just before the combines roll. Remember 2013

The slaughter continued into Feb 14. $8 cash canola. 50+ basis

[macdon02]

The slaughter continued into Feb 14. $8 cash canola. 50+ basis

Fwiw and just my thought process, last ratchet up, 2007-2008 was an 18 month phase transition, it got sold the entire way up only to make new highs, a doubling. 12 years ago is too fresh in our minds. We can not argue the massive coiling going on. The only path i see possible is a complete washout ala '13-'14 leading us to believe the world is gonna end which will provide the fuel for the next ratchet up. I could be wrong but there's some target deep under current market levels that need filling. I think beans go sub $7. Wait and see.

[macdon02]

If we see 676 soy my mentality will shift from sell every rally to weld the bin doors using options to reown multi year inventory. Upside target being $33. That's when i call Ritchie Bros.

[farmaholic]

Thanks 101, I would like to see the futures work a little more for me rather than using the positive basis to achieve the higher price.

[farmaholic]

Macdon02, that is beyond my comprehension.

[farming101]

If we see 676 soy my mentality will shift from sell every rally to weld the bin doors using options to reown multi year inventory. Upside target being $33. That's when i call Ritchie Bros.

Ha, by then a new pickup truck will be 200,000

I don't disagree that $7 beans are possible. I would say 2021 as early as April/May or at least by Nov.
It is a possibility anyway. Not a sure thing

[farming101]

In the mean time, canola has decided what to do after the July 8 up-down day.
Prices are up nicely today and have actually broken through some resistance.

Update: Friday closed lower. Not unexpected, as it often does, but not positive either.

[errolanderson]

Timing is not good. 50/50 or smaller chance for an intraday @490.

Farm deliveries were just under half a million tonnes for the week ended June 28. Haven't run out yet. If speculation pushes the futures higher I would watch for basis to deteriorate

Agree, old crop basis now at-risk.

USDA really didn’t throw any bone out yesterday. With the U.S. crop in such good condition, summer bulls may start to throw-in-the-towel . . . .

Trump admitting no Phase 2 deal, but what about Phase 1?