Wheat losses

[macdon02]

Until the Kurgan, aka USD is replaced, we commodity producers, can expect more of the same. Just goose it to 160+ and get this shit over with.

[errolanderson]

The battle for wheat market share is on . . . .

Ukraine export wheat prices generally undercut Russian export values. But now they are running neck and neck. Russia has become quite aggressive through June.

Black Sea export prices have eased about 6 percent since late May . . . .

[Hamloc]

Wheat is a commodity and like most any other, ag or otherwise, its price will tend to fall as long as interest rates fall. There is next to zero possibility of a rise in interest rates for years to come, so the long term trend is unfortunately down.

I really don’t blame lower commodity prices on falling interest rates. Falling interest rates and lower commodity prices are all linked to lack of consumer demand and the attempt to increase that demand or to increase consumer spending. Unfortunately farmers can’t collectively curtail production so we try to produce more from the same land and spend less doing it, hence the race to the bottom and the resulting over production. When I was a pig farmer I watched many farms go under and then watched somebody buy that farm for half of what it cost to build and the second farmer could then make a go of it. In grain farming this doesn’t work because land continues to appreciate due to the aforementioned low interest rates. And of course you have to throw in Mother Nature who sometimes determines your fate. So I certainly don’t have an answer except that those with the best balance sheet will be left standing at the end.

[beaverdam]

Where's the #5 durum going? Elevators paying over $7.00 for #5 durum, means it has to be used for human consumption, maybe Africa, as I thought I heard something a week or so ago about shortages in north Africa area? Can #5 durum be turned into pasta,,, low quality pasta??? What gross price would an importer have to pay for this low quality durum, if it's over $7.00 on the east side of Sask(pretty much the highest freight area)???

And why pay over $7.00 for #5 when, #1 is only a $1.50-1.75 more per bushel?

Makes me wonder what the real price for #1 is??? $12.00 bucks ,,, or more???

Is any #1 or #2 durum Canadian making it's way into Europe???

[Oliver88]

Changing commodities . . . fat cattle across North America under heavy selling pressure as well this week. Texas cash slipping to $95 to $97/cwt. Alberta fed cattle tubing with the live market breaking below $1.25/lb on limited packer buying. Cattle remain backed up in lots which is contributing to feed barley price strength. Alberta finished cattle losses may be approaching $500 per head. Believe grass cattle and cows holding up well . . . .

High yielding feed barley could end up being a better option than malt again this year.

[blackpowder]

Interesting on the durum.
Local terminal here loading some.
Funny tho we're at least 200 km from the nearest durum field.

[errolanderson]

High yielding feed barley could end up being a better option than malt again this year.

China demand for Cdn feed barley may be a sleeper in the new crop year. This could stimulate feed barley rail movement out of Sk and Mb.

Miss the Western Barley contract for feedlot price discovery . . . It worked, but it worked too well.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

China demand for Cdn feed barley may be a sleeper in the new crop year. This could stimulate feed barley rail movement out of Sk and Mb.

Miss the Western Barley contract for feedlot price discovery . . . It worked, but it worked too well.

What is your thought process behind that? Will we be picking up the slack from the Australian trade war? Or the US trade war? Recovery in pig numbers? A happy ending to the Meng extradition?

I would think that US corn would be cheaper as a feed grain, or do you see Canadian feed grade grain going into the human supply chain, where corn couldn't?

[malleefarmer]

What is your thought process behind that? Will we be picking up the slack from the Australian trade war? Or the US trade war? Recovery in pig numbers? A happy ending to the Meng extradition?

I would think that US corn would be cheaper as a feed grain, or do you see Canadian feed grade grain going into the human supply chain, where corn couldn't?

Dairy is becoming huge as well.

I kinda thought the same corn will drag barley down or replace it.

Went for a crop tour with the boy yesterday did 150 kms through known “dry areas” wow best I’ve ever seen em. May do 3 t ha in absence of frost damage only thing that can stuff em.

$200 per acre country

[errolanderson]

What is your thought process behind that? Will we be picking up the slack from the Australian trade war? Or the US trade war? Recovery in pig numbers? A happy ending to the Meng extradition?

I would think that US corn would be cheaper as a feed grain, or do you see Canadian feed grade grain going into the human supply chain, where corn couldn't?

Sk and Mb feed barley makes some fine beer in China. And Cdn barley may not be a large enough political target plus the Chinese love their beer.

Cheap U.S. corn is apt to be railed into southern Alberta this fall, but our barley market may have added export competition to the domestic feed market. Feed barley bids remain strong heading into crop year end as cattle have backed up in feedlots due to COVID. Lethbridge, High River still heard around $245/MT delivered July. Aug/Sep delivered bids Calgary south likely to slip toward $220/MT into harvest market.