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A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

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  • errolanderson
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2012
    • 3163

    How fast are U.S. stock markets declining? . . . .

    The S&P 500 is now down about 18% from all-time high posted on February 19, 2020. That was just 13 trading days ago. Here's a comparison of the 'sell-off speed' from past equity market meltdowns . . . .

    Fastest for the S&P 500 from an all-time high to down 20%

    * September/October 1929 = 42 days
    * August to October 1987 = 55 days
    * July to October 1990 = 87 days

    This suggests we may be witnessing the quickest U.S. equity market meltdown in history.

    Comment

    • ajl
      Senior Member
      • May 2008
      • 3274

      So is this the permanent end of 40+ years of fakenomics? There is a call for shock and awe stimulus by the usual useless taking heads like the IMF etc. Replacing the speculative economy with real growth and real jobs will be quite the undertaking.

      Comment

      • bucket
        Senior Member
        • Jan 2008
        • 17049

        Originally posted by ajl View Post
        So is this the permanent end of 40+ years of fakenomics? There is a call for shock and awe stimulus by the usual useless taking heads like the IMF etc. Replacing the speculative economy with real growth and real jobs will be quite the undertaking.
        You mean something that has a physical value like grain not something like thin air called bitcoin....

        Better question is how inputs can be going up....

        Comment

        • jazz
          Senior Member
          • Jul 2018
          • 9308

          Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
          We are seeing the worst of human emotions right now . . .
          Who is in the stock market Errol? Americans invest with their 401Ks, do you think they are running to computers every day and selling? Most Canadians are too broke to even own stocks. If you are $200 away from bankruptcy, stock picking is the least of your concerns.

          This looks like hedge and institutional selling aided by algos with mom and pop along for the ride (down).

          Comment

          • helmsdale
            Senior Member
            • Nov 2014
            • 2133

            US futures have been toying with limit down's in the last couple hours... They locked up just before midnight on sunday into monday. S&P 500 VIX futures are up 15%+ and climbing. Asian markets trimming another 4-7%.

            Honest question...

            How many more days before they suspend trading? Things are moving quickly!

            Comment

            • macdon02
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2007
              • 1858

              Assuming the circuit breakers all blow tomorrow, trading pauses, i want to buy this with both fists. Peak fear is stuff you buy. Bonds have a top in and money has to go somewhere. Looking for 21k roughly but will use today's low as entry

              Comment

              • farming101
                Senior Member
                • Mar 2011
                • 3956

                Bout the only things green this morning are the VIX, the USD and treasuries

                Comment

                • biglentil
                  Senior Member
                  • Jun 2015
                  • 3346

                  Originally posted by macdon02 View Post
                  Assuming the circuit breakers all blow tomorrow, trading pauses, i want to buy this with both fists. Peak fear is stuff you buy. Bonds have a top in and money has to go somewhere. Looking for 21k roughly but will use today's low as entry
                  Until coronavirus numbers stabilize instead of explode exponentially it's too dangerous to try and catch a falling knife imo.

                  Comment

                  • macdon02
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2007
                    • 1858

                    Originally posted by biglentil View Post
                    Until coronavirus numbers stabilize instead of explode exponentially it's too dangerous to try and catch a falling knife imo.
                    This is the complete loss of confidence in govt to provide. What comes out of the other side will be what's real. It sounds corny as hell. But it isn't far off

                    Comment

                    • biglentil
                      Senior Member
                      • Jun 2015
                      • 3346

                      Originally posted by macdon02 View Post
                      This is the complete loss of confidence in govt to provide. What comes out of the other side will be what's real. It sounds corny as hell. But it isn't far off
                      Will take a massive coordinated stimulus package by central banks to keep the market from seizing up completely. Took 800 billion in 2008, this one will take a few trillion minimum. The fed had been pumping hundreds of billions into the repo market before this happened. Wasn't enough.
                      Last edited by biglentil; Mar 12, 2020, 08:25.

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