Level 2 power alert in AB last night.

[chuckChuck]

Some of the discussion on Agriville is only as reliable as the rumors at coffee row.

Utilities that actually operate the system and the government regulators that oversee the operations are the ones who know what is going on at a system level.

Coal is being phased out and converted to gas. Gas is cleaner and more responsive to rapidly changing supply and demand.

Wind is being used by utilities wherever and whenever it can be fit into the system. Saskatchewan is adding significant wind generation. North Dakota already has significant wind energy and is adding more.

I am sure there will be bumps along the way. The biggest risks to failure of service is an aging and extensive over used grid system. There are lots of small short duration black outs all the time and sometimes there are bigger blackouts because of equipment failure and storm damage.

For those of you who think wind, solar and other renewables have no place in electrical generation you have already lost the debate because they are already here and being used.

And yes we still need base load supply from gas and hydro.

Utilities wont be adding intermittent renewable sources without a plan.

[bucket]

Saskatchewan is adding significant wind generation

Being brainwashed into stupidity doesn't make it right....

They also built the carbon capture system that costs more to operate than revenue generation for C02...

So now you have two systems...one highly inefficient - wind and one that is revenue negative - CCS ...and the worst part is none of it is used to gain environmental credits against the federal governments carbon tax...

But go plant a billion trees and its all good.....while the existing regrowth of the natural forests are not even in the conversation


At what point do people start using that organ between their ears?????

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Comparing the AESO wind power forecast with reality is actually quite impressive, not that far off. They undershot, as of 9:21, it is 1105 MW, and that exceeds even their max forecast for 10:00 from last night. Supposed to peak out at 1115MW by 6PM, will check back.

[grassfarmer]

For my own interest I picked one of the simple cycle plants to google and see what their mandate was. I picked Crossfield energy center. "Crossfield operates an estimated 15 to 45 percent of the time during high consumption periods-typically in the daytime and seasonally when temperatures are high or low." So yes I would say when wind is producing(like today due to a Chinook blowing in) these facilities are shut off. Out of the last 7 days today is the first day wind has produced significant electricity.

Thank you for acknowledging what I told you.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thank you for acknowledging what I told you.

That has never been in dispute. It is difficult for a lower efficiency conventional plant to compete with "Free" wind when it blows, so they don't win the bids. However, the converse is not true. No one shut off their wind turbines during the calm cold snap when electricity prices routinely reached their mandated maximum, because they didn't like making all that money.

[grassfarmer]

That has never been in dispute. It is difficult for a lower efficiency conventional plant to compete with "Free" wind when it blows, so they don't win the bids. However, the converse is not true. No one shut off their wind turbines during the calm cold snap when electricity prices routinely reached their mandated maximum, because they didn't like making all that money.

Only been in dispute for the last year....

You make the assumption that the lowest bid wins - that is not necessarily the case in a crazy jurisdiction like AB as exposed by Joe Anglin in this letter from 2012.

"It's difficult for most Albertans to decipher the complexities of Alberta's deregulated electricity system, but it is not difficult to conclude that our so-called market based electricity system is not working. One only needs to read the bottom line of last month's electricity bill for confirmation.

Albertans were told sixteen years ago that it was in our best interest to dismantle one of the best-regulated electricity systems in North America for a market based system that would lower the price of electricity. So how much longer do we wait?

Over the last couple of weeks industry representatives provided testimony to Premier Redford's Transmission Review Committee hearings. The Alberta Electric Systems Operator (AESO) and other industry representatives praised our market-based system as a shining example of the success of deregulation. I have a question for these representatives ~ What market based system?

The AESO prices electricity approximately every two hours for Alberta's wholesale electricity market. Every two hours generators offer to sell their electricity based on market demand. This is how the price is set, and it is called the stacking order. The stacking order is a simple creation of the AESO, and it favours the generators and transmission line companies at the expense of the average consumer. For example:

When the AESO requires 8,000 megawatts (MW) to supply the market for the next two hours, hydroelectric power might offer to provide 4000 MW of electricity to Alberta's market for FREE. Coal generators might offer to sell 3800MW for $45 dollars a megawatt. The remaining 200MW might be provided (bid) to the market by other suppliers for $450 a megawatt. This completes the total 8000MW required by the AESO to meet the expected demand.

AESO accepts hydro's offer first, and then accepts coal's offer and so on. This is called stacking. How is this price passed along to the consumer? All the generation suppliers (hydro, coal, and the other suppliers) get paid the top rate of $450 a megawatt ~ regardless of what price they were willing to sell to the market! In this example, Alberta's consumers don't get the benefit of FREE hydroelectric power. Alberta's consumers don't get the benefit of $45 a megawatt from coal electricity. As long as demand remains close to the 8000MW level for the next two hours, consumers pay the full price as if the total 8,000MW cost $450 a megawatt, even though 50% of the electricity was offered for FREE and another 47.5% was offered for $45 a megawatt!

If this wasn't bad enough, when hydro and co-generated electricity in Alberta drive the wholesale price of electricity to $0MW (FREE), the AESO interferes and clears the market (cancels all bids). The bidding process then starts over again.

Alberta's electricity system is not a market-based system. It is a scam that guarantees the maximum price for the lowest cost electricity! Consumers are victimized by this pricing mechanism. Alberta didn't move to a deregulated system. Alberta went from a regulated system to a rigged system, and it's time we unrigged Alberta's electricity market!"

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Grassfarmer, we have real time data to use. Why bring up future forecasts(like you did yesterday) , and now an 8 year old letter about an event 24 years ago, in an attempt to refute actual present time up to the date facts?

Or is it all a grand conspiracy on the part of AESO and the entire supply and demand report is a fabrication to give them an excuse to drive electricity prices higher? It seems quite transparent to me, I can't find anything similar for other jurisdictions I have checked.

On another positive note, as the temp keeps warming up(and demand keeps dropping) the wind is blowing, wind energy is up to 70% of nameplate capacity. Some are close to capacity, and only two out of 23 are still reading 0.

[jazz]

the city of Calgary bought up all the wind generation in the province for the c train. It's probably not even bid into the system anymore as it's too unreliable. Basically subsidized by local Govt now.

Who in their right mind would go into the bid market and pick a wind farm which could shut down any second over Sheerness?

[TASFarms]

the city of Calgary bought up all the wind generation in the province for the c train. It's probably not even bid into the system anymore as it's too unreliable. Basically subsidized by local Govt now.

Who in their right mind would go into the bid market and pick a wind farm which could shut down any second over Sheerness?

Can someone say California power crisis.

[Integrity_Farmer]

A solar panel or windmill with a 20 yr life or payback will not offset the carbon it took to build it, period, so its sensless to adopt such a technoligy until that hurdle is met. I mean its about CO2 right? Or is it about virtue signalling? because it sure as hell isnt about efficient and reliabe energy production.

This is not factual. With respect to windmills and this life cycle analysis indicates it only takes 6.6 months of operation to recover the energy spent in all the phases of entire lifecycle.

As far as an onshore wind turbine is concerned, the energy balance is similar but shorter than the offshore one, with only 0.55 years (6.6 months) needed to recover the energy spent in all the phases of entire lifecycle. This difference is due to a larger grid transmission and larger steel consumption for the foundations in an offshore scheme.
https://www.wind-energy-the-facts.org/energy-balance-analysis-7.html