Fertilizer thoughts

[helmsdale]

Mosaic is shutting down in Florida pho’s.

Reason Morocco. Sending cheap shit

Interesting... Certainly one of the reasons i was inquiring. I searched the google news archive and couldn't find anything related to the "king of morocco" saying that they were pulling out of the phos market... so wondered if I was being played?

[Bowerpower]

I purchased fert and it is in my bins where I want. I was good with price. I’m not dealing with spring logistics. It will be a gong show if there’s a tight seeding window. Next to no fall fert applied in Manitoba. I don’t see price moving much either way. I believe floor is in. Retailers here won’t want to budge much. Direct loads from states may be an option. Mines are shutting down, so floor is in or very close imo.

[woodland]

Got half the fert delivered yesterday and the rest is coming Monday. Been burned by pre buying from one dealer and paying storage till May. Went to pick it up and he ran out of phos. Went and bought epoxy bins the next fall and paid for product then get it delivered in a month or two. That worked great until we almost got swindled out of our whole years fert purchase by Performance Ag when they stole everyone’s pre pay money. This year the trucks are delivering and it will be paid for within a week.

Our nearest dealer is 50km away and usually is an hour or more wait to get loaded so I think our bins are great.

P.S. The price went down on our blended stuff $10 a couple of days after ordering it .......... like usual. 😉

[Bowerpower]

I purchased fert and it is in my bins where I want. I was good with price. I’m not dealing with spring logistics. It will be a gong show if there’s a tight seeding window. Next to no fall fert applied in Manitoba. I don’t see price moving much either way. I believe floor is in. Retailers here won’t want to budge much. Direct loads from states may be an option. Mines are shutting down, so floor is in or very close imo.

[SASKFARMER]

Mosaic is shutting down in Florida pho’s.

Reason Morocco. Sending cheap shit

[GDR]

Has anyone heard anything substantive to the possibility that Morocco will withdraw from the global phosphate market until prices appreciate? One local supplier is saying that their access to book new phosphate shipments has been halted until they can figure out Morocco's direction. Another hasn't heard a whiff...

What is spring availability of product looking like? In the areas with late harvest's there likely was a noticeable decline in fall fertilizer laydown. Im guessing that the majority of those fertilizer laydowns would have been anhydrous? If guys didn't get it down in the fall, will they stick with anhydrous ahead of the drill, or switch to dry granular? If so, is that going to put a strain on the logisitics involved with sourcing granular N in the spring?

With a hot trucking market right now in western canada, I doubt that there will be alot of Canadian trucks lining up to take up the slack on the Pocatello phosphate haul. This happened back in, i think it was 2013... The input suppliers were short of phos, and we volunteered 5 super-b's to turn and burn non-stop to pocatello for phos. We'd slip seat drivers and run 24/7 if the price was right. Comparable per mile rate to what we were passing up at the time would have made the run worth ~$100/mT. Suppliers said they would only pay $60, which is what they had paid all year for US trucks like Pol**** and Sanchez to bring it up. We passed, as did MANY others, and so many went without phos. Are the stars aligning for a similar situation again? Companies are rating broker loads at $8/loaded mile right now and getting it no questions asked. When I quit commercial hauling, I was averaging $2.21/running mile... probably 2/3 loaded. You do the math... Guys are not going to pass up $8/mi to go pull out of Idaho for $3/mi!

Prices have been drifting lower, but enough guys are starting to bite I think... Has a floor been set?

Lots of guys like myself buying this week for tax reasons. Urea down $20 locally from last week to $470. Overall my blends are cheaper than last year at the same time.

Unharvested acres may play an impact on supply as seeding window may be even shorter than usual. But may lower overall fert needs as likely some will go unseeded if spring is wet and lots will go to shorter season crops like barley using less inputs. Lack of fall application not an issue here, fall banding pretty much ancient history, maybe other areas different.

At $8/mile you should go back trucking! Can likely add a carbon tax surcharge on top too. I expect freight rates to keep going up, gonna be harder to find and keep drivers going forward with the new licensing rules.

[bigzee]

I bought myself an early Christmas present this wk .... fert!! Needed to buy before year end.
Retailers say it’s slow .... sitting for the phone to ring. Was “happy” with the deal I struck, still overpriced considering commodity prices.
Take Jan-Feb, but I want it home by mid Jan.
Prices will drop now that I bought ..... no different than selling something, it usually goes up next day.

[helmsdale]

Has anyone heard anything substantive to the possibility that Morocco will withdraw from the global phosphate market until prices appreciate? One local supplier is saying that their access to book new phosphate shipments has been halted until they can figure out Morocco's direction. Another hasn't heard a whiff...

What is spring availability of product looking like? In the areas with late harvest's there likely was a noticeable decline in fall fertilizer laydown. Im guessing that the majority of those fertilizer laydowns would have been anhydrous? If guys didn't get it down in the fall, will they stick with anhydrous ahead of the drill, or switch to dry granular? If so, is that going to put a strain on the logisitics involved with sourcing granular N in the spring?

With a hot trucking market right now in western canada, I doubt that there will be alot of Canadian trucks lining up to take up the slack on the Pocatello phosphate haul. This happened back in, i think it was 2013... The input suppliers were short of phos, and we volunteered 5 super-b's to turn and burn non-stop to pocatello for phos. We'd slip seat drivers and run 24/7 if the price was right. Comparable per mile rate to what we were passing up at the time would have made the run worth ~$100/mT. Suppliers said they would only pay $60, which is what they had paid all year for US trucks like Pol**** and Sanchez to bring it up. We passed, as did MANY others, and so many went without phos. Are the stars aligning for a similar situation again? Companies are rating broker loads at $8/loaded mile right now and getting it no questions asked. When I quit commercial hauling, I was averaging $2.21/running mile... probably 2/3 loaded. You do the math... Guys are not going to pass up $8/mi to go pull out of Idaho for $3/mi!

Prices have been drifting lower, but enough guys are starting to bite I think... Has a floor been set?