For those of you who think US farmers are not in trouble

[jazz]

Trump just made the US consumer a Trillion dollars richer. I dont hear anything like that coming out of china. They picked the wrong fight and vastly overplayed their hand.

Trump hasnt even used his real hammers yet. He can ban companies and countries outright, attack the yuan, kick china out of WTO, block their access to capital and the biggest hammer of all is devalue the US dollar.

But US farmers are welcome to vote for Biden if they think this is so bad.

[bucket]

Anyone notice how Pelosi went after the media the other day when asked if she hated the president....

Quite a scolding.....but its ok for democrats to scold the media....she sounded like an old grandmother of the 60s.....

[farmaholic]

Trump just made the US consumer a Trillion dollars richer. I dont hear anything like that coming out of china. They picked the wrong fight and vastly overplayed their hand.

Trump hasnt even used his real hammers yet. He can ban companies and countries outright, attack the yuan, kick china out of WTO, block their access to capital and the biggest hammer of all is devalue the US dollar.

But US farmers are welcome to vote for Biden if they think this is so bad.

Or we can just keep "selling them Canada", until it's too late.

We should be selling our resources(renewable and non).....not our ASSETS!

[bucket]

Or we can just keep "selling them Canada", until it's too late.

We should be selling our resources(renewable and non).....not our ASSETS!

We expensed money over in the middle east while allowing the Saudis to buy grain assets in Canada...what a great deal hey?

[dmlfarmer]

Jazz, some folks will simply refuse to understand so you can't help them. The US has long won China's trade war...... The US needs China for what again?

why US farmers need China and the US is actually losing the trade war. excerpt from Agricultural Economics Insights today.

…"The current China/U.S. trade war is obviously weighing heavily on the U.S. farm sector. From an economic perspective, there are a few key things that can be concluded. First, let’s consider who loses in the trade war. The most obvious losers are U.S. farm producers who are losing access to a large and growing marketplace for their products. While other countries will fill the market and U.S. soybeans will flow to other markets, the transaction and transportation costs associated with realigning the movement of agricultural products to other markets are significant and will ultimately be borne by U.S. producers.

The other major losers in the trade dispute are Chinese buyers of U.S. ag exports. These buyers are now forced to find other more expensive places to purchase their products. In the case of soybeans, this is particularly difficult as the Chinese demand accounts for nearly all the remaining exportable soybean supplies in the world. In short, the trade war has the impact of increasing commodity prices in China, which in turn reduces overall demand.

On the other side of the ledger, the clear winners in this dispute are all other nations that are capable of exporting agricultural goods to China. These producers will increasingly find that prices for their commodities are higher and will be further incentivized to add to production capacity. Additionally, other countries that import agricultural goods should see the benefit of reduced prices on U.S. agricultural goods.

As we move forward, the China/U.S. trade dispute is causing a major disruption in the economics of agricultural production around the world. In the long-term, the most concerning impact is that it is further encouraging an expansion of agricultural production around the world, but in particular South America. As these additional production resources come on-line, it will likely add to already burdensome supplies and may produce a supply overhang that will last well after the trade dispute’s resolution.

It is clear that U.S. agricultural producers and farmland owners would benefit from a resolution of the trade war. Whether a resolution is forthcoming is difficult to predict. It seems that the finish line of the negotiations is perpetually moving further from sight. The uncertainty associated with the trade war is substantial. It is unclear how or when it will be resolved. Furthermore, one has to wonder how long it would take to realize any potential benefits, or wins, from a resolution. If the trade war were to last indefinitely, one should expect major pain and realignment in the U.S. farm sector, particularly in the row crop sectors. These producers will be forced to continue to change commodity mixes and realign production. This will be economically painful. If the situation persists the government will be required to continue to make large “adjustment” outlays to agriculture, or see farm incomes sink."

The entire article is worth considering and for those Trumpets willing to challenge your bias go to https://aei.ag/2019/12/08/trade-war-continues-to-weigh-on-u-s-agriculture/?utm_source=Agricultural+Economic+Insights&utm_cam paign=56d524d681-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_15_02_36_COPY_01&utm_medium =email&utm_term=0_6f5fb3d56c-56d524d681-449769685 https://aei.ag/2019/12/08/trade-war-continues-to-weigh-on-u-s-agriculture/?utm_source=Agricultural+Economic+Insights&utm_cam paign=56d524d681-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_15_02_36_COPY_01&utm_medium =email&utm_term=0_6f5fb3d56c-56d524d681-449769685 to read full article

[Rareearth]

The other problem China has is demographics or ageing population.

They(China) are old like farmers in Canada. Wonder what China manufacturing or consumerism and Canadian agriculture will look like in 10 or 15 year, well it will be a lot different. Not sure if Canadian ag will be better, more profitable, etc., but it will be different.

[jazz]

The other problem China has is demographics or ageing population.

China has several demographic time bombs ticking away. It will get old before it every gets to the US level of wealth, and the US will keep going because it has a self sustaining demographic for the next couple generations.

In addition to an aging population, china has a male skewed population. Turns out aborting or killing female babies on a mass scale has consequences. 60M more males than females in the country. That schism will send their birth rates plummeting even further.

[Hamloc]

Dml not a Trump fan but admittedly less of a fan of Trudeau. In the U.S. at least government is compensating the farmers for the mess they created. In our last election virtually nothing was said about agriculture. I see no policy planks on either side of the border that will help farmers prosper in the future.

[dmlfarmer]

The other problem China has is demographics or ageing population.

They(China) are old like farmers in Canada. Wonder what China manufacturing or consumerism and Canadian agriculture will look like in 10 or 15 year, well it will be a lot different. Not sure if Canadian ag will be better, more profitable, etc., but it will be different.

Those of you who believe this about China are looking at it through rose colored western glasses. The old people in China were not consumers in the sense our old people are. They were frugal, spending only what was needed to sustain life, and are living the same way now. So as demographics age for at least another generation we will not see a slow down in consumer spending because the older generation were not spending on throw away goods.

Second, the state does not care for old people in China, families do and always; have unlike recent western culture. So again, demographics do not play as big a role in China.

Third, Chinese are much more self sufficient than westerners. They do not have the social safety nets we do. Chinese farmers do not have crop insurance subsidized by the government, They do not have AgriInvest. etc etc.

How many of you have actually been on a Chinese farm in China? Or been a a real Chinese house and not some display home on some guided tour? Until you have been and have compared practices and programs and have been told face to face by a Chinese farmer that Canadian farmers are way more socialistic than Chinese farmers don't try to BS this forumn with your western biases China is losing the war. China does not look from crop year to crop year. They look at the future througg generations not years.

[dmlfarmer]

Dml not a Trump fan but admittedly less of a fan of Trudeau. In the U.S. at least government is compensating the farmers for the mess they created. In our last election virtually nothing was said about agriculture. I see no policy planks on either side of the border that will help farmers prosper in the future.

Hamlock, you are right. There are no long term plans in either Canada or US addressing farmers. And I believe that much of the pricing mess we have in ag commodities is directly the result of the US trade war because all our grains are priced on US commodity exchanges ie wheat or based off US commodity trade ie canola and soy. So we lose because of US policy.

I am frequently called a socialist on this list, but the real socialists on this site are those continually calling for government bailouts and compensation for; ag yet continue to max production of commodities while ignoring price signals and demand.

If you do not support globalization, agriculture is dead in Canada. We produce way too much for our own consumption needs and other countries can and are producing more at a lower cost and will supply all the markets we are so intent on giving the finger too.