Equity market warning sign

[errolanderson]

Helmsy,
Is that an acronym for "Buy the Fūckin Dip" or "Bear the Fůck down"

And don't think I've seen as much sarcasm in all of Anderson's posts combined than I saw in his last one.

The financial system is broken . . . What’s left is: the pied piper trying to lead the flock.

[TechAnalyst]

The best indicator of market tops and bottoms imo is the DSI. Daily sentiment index is reaching nosebleed heights of 90+ in both the Nasdaq and SP500.*

I was trying to keep it brief for this forum but I agree completely that the sentiment index is a great warning of an impending top (along with many other indicators currently signalling trouble). Errol has pointed out many of the fundamental warning signs as well.

The most concerning to me is the record net short position in the VIX futures held by large specs with commercials holding a record net long. The volatility index futures are used as a hedging mechanism by commercials given stocks tend to take the escalator up and the elevator down. The problem is, commercials don’t want to get out of their positions as they are for risk management purposes but large speculators do once the low volatility looks to be ending. In the past, this has been associated with violent breaks in stock prices. That may be what lies ahead now.

The problem with all of these warning signs are they are not timing indicators, just warnings of imminent danger. That is why I pointed out the key reversal. It is a potential trigger that could start the correction being warned of.

Macdon put it well, the message was simply figure out how many puts you need to cover your investments and buy either at the money E-mini S&P (ES) puts or further out of the money, depending on how concerned you are and how much you want to spend.

[sawfly1]

Trump just tweeted, might not get
China deal till after 2020 elections.
So that probably means a deal is close.
We all know by now
What Trump says is either
A ploy, or a lie ,
Truth never factors in the equation.

[malleefarmer]

So we can currently price wheat foward for 2020 harvest next year at $270 on farm if things are gonna hit the fan I should be foward selling 20% of expected production??

[ajl]

US equity markets already done with selloff. Moves higher from here. Always buy when the news is talking that the trade deal is off and sell when the news is that a trade deal is imminent. Been doing that with JNJ for a number of cycles now by selling calls. Trade deal irrelevant to the US.

[farmaholic]

So we can currently price wheat foward for 2020 harvest next year at $270 on farm if things are gonna hit the fan I should be foward selling 20% of expected production??

[ATTACH]5313[/ATTACH]

Too funny Mallee.
Since most of the other comments are beyond my simple mind's comprehension....I have to amuse myself with stoopid cartoons.

[farmaholic]

I have a question.
With some of the comments made here on equity markets and value protection...
Anyone on here completely manage their own retirement portfolio?
If you have no faith in the state of the markets or think you know what direction things are moving...what have you been doing? I really don't expect a response. Just food for thought.

[Guest]

Too funny Mallee.
Since most of the other comments are beyond my simple mind's comprehension....I have to amuse myself with stoopid cartoons.

Me too

[helmsdale]

If the last decade has provided any insight, I suppose give it till thursday late in the day, or friday, and it'll be time to BTFD again!

The dip was ONE day!

[flea beetle]

I have a question.
With some of the comments made here on equity markets and value protection...
Anyone on here completely manage their own retirement portfolio?
If you have no faith in the state of the markets or think you know what direction things are moving...what have you been doing? I really don't expect a response. Just food for thought.

I top up my TFSA fully every year and put that money in the stock market. Typically pull out my Agrinvest and use that money for that. The wife tops up her TFSA and puts that money in GIC's as our safe investment. Laddered for 5 years, meaning she has 5 different GIC accounts and one comes due every year. She tops up the GIC that comes due that year and renews it for 5 years.

We also use the laddered strategy for the kids trust funds so hopefully there will be enough money for 5 years of education. One GIC coming due for every year of education. And if they decide not to go to school, then they have a down payment on a house or to start a business.