What happens to land prices during western separation(or not)?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It is amusing that some still think that you can work from within in Canuckistan. Done that for 25 years or more and yielded zilch. Allberta has the choice of sinking with ship Canuckistan or have a go at independence. The only thing as far as recognition internationally that matter is the will the US recognize us as independent and I think it will. Other trade agreement not worth the paper they are written on and China will still send it exports to us. Big issues will surround the pension plan but we have enough leverage that rest of canuckistan will be forced to pay up. As far as land values are concerned, it will not have much impact. Real estate is in a bear market right now except for loose monetary policy which is the main driver of all real estate values. Politics favor continued loose monetary policy in place dependent on commodity exports so values will depend on the extent that currency debasement overpower bearish fundamentals just like what is happening now. Bearish fundamentals for farmland primarily involve the disappearance of export markets. People overseas are simply too poor to buy from us. Non Us exports are dead.

And US is going to strong arm their way into being the exporter into the few markets that remain, at the value they dictate, at the expense of every other exporter who will be left to pick up the scraps. We can either join in and take advantage of that, or join the rest of the world fighting over whatever markets are left.

[ajl]

It is amusing that some still think that you can work from within in Canuckistan. Done that for 25 years or more and yielded zilch. Allberta has the choice of sinking with ship Canuckistan or have a go at independence. The only thing as far as recognition internationally that matter is the will the US recognize us as independent and I think it will. Other trade agreement not worth the paper they are written on and China will still send it exports to us. Big issues will surround the pension plan but we have enough leverage that rest of canuckistan will be forced to pay up. As far as land values are concerned, it will not have much impact. Real estate is in a bear market right now except for loose monetary policy which is the main driver of all real estate values. Politics favor continued loose monetary policy in place dependent on commodity exports so values will depend on the extent that currency debasement overpower bearish fundamentals just like what is happening now. Bearish fundamentals for farmland primarily involve the disappearance of export markets. People overseas are simply too poor to buy from us. Non Us exports are dead.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Politicians come and go, trade disruptions come and go. Been the same for hundreds of years in agriculture, don't fret over what you can't control. You deal with the circumstances as they occur and don't waste too much time on speculating the "what if's" as your chances of predicting correctly what will happen in future are about as good as predicting next month's weather.

Fair enough, but yet you are predicting quite confidently that the future of western Canada does not include any drastic changes.

And how many of those previous trade disruptions were as disruptive as the worlds superpower going from also being the worlds biggest oil importer( or substitute the most important commodity of the era, spice, cotton, wool, grain, coal, slaves etc) to being a net exporter, and literally no longer needing the rest of the world, or needing to care what happens outside their borders? That doesn't mean they don't or won't, but it is certainly an option.

I don't think most of us can even grasp how this changes the world order, and that it won't be going away with the next regime change. It will be interesting to see how the US responds to the latest crisis in the straights of Hormuz, now that they literally don't have a horse in the race. Are they still going to defend the interests of their trading partners and allies without question? Will they see what concessions they can extract from them first and only then defend them, or will they wash their hands of this and say not my problem. And the implications that has for all world trade, from Canadian grain to Chinese goods coming back.

[furrowtickler]

No Canadian can own land as there is no provision in the Act. The ownership factor is 1. You have tenure to the land, and that is what you were paid for.

"All physical land in Canada is the property of the Crown, Queen Elisabeth 11. There is no provision in the Canada Act, or in the Constitution Act 1982 which amends it, for any Canadian to own any physical land in Canada. All that Canadians may hold, in conformity with medieval and feudal law, is “an interest in an estate in land in fee simple”. Land defined as ‘Crown land’ in Canada, and administered by the Federal Government and the Provinces, is merely land not ‘dedicated’ or assigned in freehold tenure. Freehold is tenure, not ownership. Freehold land is ‘held’ not ‘owned’."

Which absolutely scares the heck out of me with Trudeau in power and his love for UN policy. He has to go in October for that reason alone .... all the rest of his b/S antics are simply a distraction

[tweety]

Agreed - I know when I sold up in AB the money went into my bank account not Liz's.

No Canadian can own land as there is no provision in the Act. The ownership factor is 1. You have tenure to the land, and that is what you were paid for.

"All physical land in Canada is the property of the Crown, Queen Elisabeth 11. There is no provision in the Canada Act, or in the Constitution Act 1982 which amends it, for any Canadian to own any physical land in Canada. All that Canadians may hold, in conformity with medieval and feudal law, is “an interest in an estate in land in fee simple”. Land defined as ‘Crown land’ in Canada, and administered by the Federal Government and the Provinces, is merely land not ‘dedicated’ or assigned in freehold tenure. Freehold is tenure, not ownership. Freehold land is ‘held’ not ‘owned’."

[tweety]

There is much debate from the 1999 supreme court case with the Quebec ref and the Clarity Act as even if AB voted for secession if the Gov of Canada would just veto it anyway. Also there is the debate of whether the other provinces need to approve the secession as well. It's all a bunch of guesses and maybe's.

I don't think AB5 land prices are going to change much because nothing is going to change in AB. Can't even build a pipeline. Unless they diversified - like that is going to happen.

[grassfarmer]

Politicians come and go, trade disruptions come and go. Been the same for hundreds of years in agriculture, don't fret over what you can't control. You deal with the circumstances as they occur and don't waste too much time on speculating the "what if's" as your chances of predicting correctly what will happen in future are about as good as predicting next month's weather.

[blackpowder]

Paradigm shift? Explain please.

.Fixing the Senate would be a huge change and we can't even get that done.
Sad bastard.

The new gen of farmers know exactly what there net worth is.
And would cash in and do something else if nothing else.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Or it tells us that you are just talking nonsense.

So, your long term business plan revolves around Trump losing the next election, sanity prevailing, the end of trade wars and trade disruption, and markets to return to what they were a few short years ago? That is certainly the best case for Canada in the short and medium term. And if you put good odds on that happening, then by all means, don't consider any other worst case scenarios. It would have to also include considering the shale boom to be a short term fad that too shall pass.

[grassfarmer]

The fact that no one acknowledges or responds to this post tells us all we need to know about the level of preparation most farmers have made in regards to very real and imminent existential threats to their entire livelihood and value of their assets.

Or it tells us that you are just talking nonsense.