China refuses purchases of all Canadian canola;

[shtferbrains]

If the ban on pea imports is as has been reported as of last night, it's going to be a nightmare. Perhaps worse than canola on a price per bushel basi

Last year, they took ~1.5MMT of ~2.4MMT of production. Many sources I'm seeing online were expecting them to purchase ~2MMT of an estimated 3MMT of domestic production. If we lose 2/3 of the market, where on gods green earth do they possibly go and for what price do they go to be competitive with the Black Sea and others? If a ban on pea imports continues, future movement will be next to impossible, and if it extends into this upcoming crop year...

Peas look to have severe short term problems on the export market but appear to have a bright future with fractionization/Fake meat and pet food.

Is this not going to use 3 MMT in the short to mid term?

https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2018/11/29/60-second-interview-Tyler-Lorenzen-president-PURIS-talks-pea-protein

Peas please! Where next for pea protein?

29-Nov-2018 By Elaine Watson

Once a niche ingredient, pea protein is now the #2 player in the burgeoning plant-based protein market behind soy, with key players ratcheting up capacity to meet growing demand. FoodNavigator-USA (FNU) caught up with Tyler Lorenzen (TL), president at PURIS, the largest North American producer of pea protein, to talk peas…

[helmsdale]

Furrow

There is nothing wrong with everyone making a profit but it has to leave enough for the host to throw a party for the leeches....

As big as Richardson is ....I'm not sure they can sustain a prolonged hit like this....

Just like alot of farms in western canada I would suspect that the large majority of Agricultural Input/Elevator companies are approaching the point of being overextended. They bought into the "there's nowhere to go but up" mentality just as hard as everyone else. Elevators that had stood for years with little to no upgrades, and nearly all of them have undergone major expansions. MAJOR fertilizer equipment expenditures by nearly every one of the majors! All new blenders, storage buildings, and in some cases entirely new facilities. Input companies with shiny new storage buildings, new offices, large $$$ acquisitions of small to medium sized independent suppliers. And every one of these added staff to the payroll! ALL OF THESE have to be paid for, and you can be certain they didnt pay cash for them. Cash flow is king for them just as much as it is for us.

I fully accept that their market power is far more significant than ours is, and they have the ability to pass along a few more of their costs than we do, but when prices decline for commodities, especially on the elevator side, I'm sure that their profit margins are tighter. It's easier to take $4 out of the pie when its worth $15, than it is to take the same $4 when its worth $10.

When prices slide, some sanity starts to inject itself into the input market. Maybe I'm alone on this front, but i backed out my "target" yields this year when ordering inputs. Higher fert prices combined with lower commodity prices mean it just isn't sustainable to throw everything short of the kitchen sink at a crop. If canola acres take a hit, in favor of cereals or other pulses, fert requirements decrease across the board.

Likely weatherable by most everyone except the few who are on an absolute knifes edge, but god forbid this thing hangs over into subsequent years, there's going to be well enough stab wounds to go around for all involved.

[helmsdale]

I can see $7.50 Canola!!!!!!
Holy shit better get your pencils sharpened up boys..... this will separate the men from the boys. Fire the marketing agent...fire the agronomist....cancel the micro nutrients....... lay off the extra help....cancel that super duper semi and trailer you just ordered...thise combines will do just fine for several years....burn the RB catalog....Let that shitty ground go, it hardly made money when canola was $11.00. Its going to get interesting, this is not going to end well because our boy in Ottawa wants farmers to be peasants like we used to be. Those Liberal eletes will always get paid and don’t give a rip about western Canada.

Like I politely reminded my father in laws cousin when he was overly grumpy back in the good old days when the railroads seized up and grain wasn't making it to the coast and wheat bids locally were sub $4...

For nearly the entirety of agricultural history, primary producers have been little more than peasants subservient to lords and barons. We sure as hell didn't ride in the gold plated chariot (as he sat in his 1yr old Ford King Ranch), but instead walked behind hoping the occupant of the gold plated chariot would throw a scrap or two from the window.

[grassfarmer]

Yup , the entire Ag industry that makes its living off of us producers..... is quiet yet again ..
can you imagine if the whole Ag industry, machinery dealers/companies , Vitera, Richardson, ADM , P&H, Corteva, Bayer, Cargil ect, and all the very wealthy independent Ag dealers ( Bairs, The Rack, Synergy, Cavalier Ag, and many others) actually got together and stood up for their customers who pay dearly to keep their lights on here in western Canada .....
One voice to Ottawa on behalf of the only group in Canada that is going to feel any real financial hit from this whole political side show with China ..... nah , all these Ag companies will just send out reminders that your next bill needs to be paid ASAP ..... that’s exactly what will happen sadly .

That's a good post Furrow. Particularly with regard to the large transnational Corporations - they can't lose in a situation like this. If they ship less volume of canola from Canada to China they get to ship more of the alternative product from elsewhere. If they make less from Canadian operations they make it up elsewhere in the world. It's noticeable also on the anti-agriculture attacks that the farmer is left alone to fight that - never any support or heavy lifting from the guys that make a living off us. Indeed with this whole fake meat industry developing the big meat processors are all invested in it - quick to throw the meat producing farmer under the bus. It's why I'm not a fan of the transnational corporations controlling agriculture.

[grassfarmer]

If the ban on pea imports is as has been reported as of last night, it's going to be a nightmare. Perhaps worse than canola on a price per bushel basis?

Where was that reported I can't find any news on other ag product exports being affected?

[furrowtickler]

https://www.producer.com/2019/03/china-restricts-canadian-wheat-peas-flax-imports/

[checking]

Saskatoon newsroom of the WP - March 22,2019

[helmsdale]

Where was that reported I can't find any news on other ag product exports being affected?

https://www.producer.com/2019/03/china-restricts-canadian-wheat-peas-flax-imports/ https://www.producer.com/2019/03/china-restricts-canadian-wheat-peas-flax-imports/

It's not a done deal yet... but according to G&M they are intending to.

But the story states that current purchases on the books have been cancelled?
The story states, “purchase plans for wheat, peas, flax seed and ****seed meal have all been canceled,” said Gao Huazhi, chief executive of Jiangsu Tongliang International, which imports Canadian agricultural products.

If you can get behind the G&M paywall, here's their story:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-china-ramps-up-tensions-bars-new-purchases-of-all-canadian-canola-and/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-china-ramps-up-tensions-bars-new-purchases-of-all-canadian-canola-and/

[15444]

Well fellas, you were looking/forecasting for a reset in land rent/value and input/machinery prices. I think you just got it. You didn't think it would happen at any scale without a big change did you? Just like us cattle guys in '03, you get lean, mean and green, you might just survive this. Guys who continue as usual will fill the RB catalog next year.

[Guest]

That's a good post Furrow. Particularly with regard to the large transnational Corporations - they can't lose in a situation like this. If they ship less volume of canola from Canada to China they get to ship more of the alternative product from elsewhere. If they make less from Canadian operations they make it up elsewhere in the world. It's noticeable also on the anti-agriculture attacks that the farmer is left alone to fight that - never any support or heavy lifting from the guys that make a living off us. Indeed with this whole fake meat industry developing the big meat processors are all invested in it - quick to throw the meat producing farmer under the bus. It's why I'm not a fan of the transnational corporations controlling agriculture.

I love mybig thick juicy steak. They can feed their test tube food to thin frail pale little sheeple

[macdon02]

Domestic crushers now have a captive market, just saying.

[SASKFARMER3]

HhahahHa Harper would have been way smarter.

Canada wasn’t run by morons like we have now.

[macdon02]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1R40I0?__twitter_impression=true https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1R40I0?__twitter_impression=true

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Just like alot of farms in western canada I would suspect that the large majority of Agricultural Input/Elevator companies are approaching the point of being overextended. They bought into the "there's nowhere to go but up" mentality just as hard as everyone else. Elevators that had stood for years with little to no upgrades, and nearly all of them have undergone major expansions. MAJOR fertilizer equipment expenditures by nearly every one of the majors! All new blenders, storage buildings, and in some cases entirely new facilities. Input companies with shiny new storage buildings, new offices, large $$$ acquisitions of small to medium sized independent suppliers. And every one of these added staff to the payroll! ALL OF THESE have to be paid for, and you can be certain they didnt pay cash for them. Cash flow is king for them just as much as it is for us.

I fully accept that their market power is far more significant than ours is, and they have the ability to pass along a few more of their costs than we do, but when prices decline for commodities, especially on the elevator side, I'm sure that their profit margins are tighter. It's easier to take $4 out of the pie when its worth $15, than it is to take the same $4 when its worth $10.

When prices slide, some sanity starts to inject itself into the input market. Maybe I'm alone on this front, but i backed out my "target" yields this year when ordering inputs. Higher fert prices combined with lower commodity prices mean it just isn't sustainable to throw everything short of the kitchen sink at a crop. If canola acres take a hit, in favor of cereals or other pulses, fert requirements decrease across the board.

Likely weatherable by most everyone except the few who are on an absolute knifes edge, but god forbid this thing hangs over into subsequent years, there's going to be well enough stab wounds to go around for all involved.

So, with many of the companies we sell to being private companies, which means we can't see their books, should we be worried about getting paid when delivering grain? Assume that they all had their purchases hedged with sales long time ago( not assuming, that is the only way they do business), and those sales have now evaporated, are they now selling the hedged product at a lower price domestically than they bought it for? Are they having to source product from other sources to fill their contracts, or would they be in court trying to get their contracts upheld, or does force majeure come into play since it is factors beyond their power?

[malleefarmer]

That's exactly what happens here in WA. I've done it myself. You are not misinformed just uninformed.

If your wondering guys checked the stats of acres of canola in WA Austranada is a tad off any way ive not blockd anyone on my whole time on agriville thinking theres gonna be a first sadly.

I often disagree with guys on here but duefully respect opinions well has to be big for me to block.