Canada May face a Recession the USA Not!

[MBgrower]

No Chuck, sheer wont make Canada great again. That ship has sailed for good with this stupid socialists experiment. We wont be able to out the monster back in the bottle now. Its all about just limiting the damage so the smart money can reposition itself out of here. If Trudeau gets in again, Canada will failed or it will fracture. There is no scenario where he comes out on top. If he wins power he loses the country and he can be Prime Minster of Ontario and Quebec. That's basically all he is now anyway.

The prairie provinces would be much richer if we form an economic partnership with the US.

Correction, he will be PM of metro Vancouver, Montreal, and Toronto. that is really what this country is.

[farming101]

Hahahahah. IN the USA

The federal deficit soared last year to $779 billion and is projected to approach $1 trillion in 2019.

Interest on U.S. debt is projected to total $7 trillion over the next decade and, by 2026, will become the third largest category of the federal budget, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization dedicated to addressing the country’s long-term fiscal challenges.

To pay for years of deficits, the federal government must borrow money. Roughly half of the U.S. debt is held by foreign countries, such as China, Japan and Saudi Arabia. China alone holds more than $1 trillion in U.S. debt.

At the end of FY 2019 the total government debt in the United States, including federal, state, and local, is expected to be $25.86 trillion.

Interested in your view of what would be the right amount of debt for the US. It seems you think it is too high now.
There is roughly 15.589 trillion of debt in marketable securities (bills, notes, bonds) held by the public as of Dec 2018.
Should those be cleared first? And what would that mean for the world's economy if they were?

[farming101]

Look for machine dealers and parts sellers to front run this news with another hefty hike in prices for equipment and parts

[malleefarmer]

Aussie dollar briefly falls below 68 US cents, its lowest in 10 years How much will your Aussie dollars be worth, and your mortgage cost, later this year?
The Australian dollar will fall to 60 US cents this year and remain there next year, according to an updated forecast from a major economics research house.

Key points:
Capital Economics is tipping a 16 per cent fall in the Australian dollar this year
The forecaster predicts it will remain at 60 US cents through 2020
The lower dollar is expected to sustain the recent boom in tourism and education
That would be a 16 per cent fall from the current exchange rate and take the local currency to its lowest level since it briefly hit 60 US cents in October 2008, at the height of market panic during the global financial crisis.

At that time, the currency quickly rebounded to 90 US cents a year later and a peak of $US1.10 in July 2011, as Australia's economy rapidly rebounded from the financial crisis and interest rates went up here, while the US endured a severe recession, near-zero rates and a quantitative easing program that saw the Federal Reserve injecting trillions of dollars into the banking system.

However, this time around, Simona Gambarini from Capital Economics does not foresee a quick rebound from any fall as it is the Australian economy's turn to face severe challenges.

"We have changed our view of the future direction of interest rates there as we now think that the ongoing downturn in the housing market will deepen, causing GDP growth to fall below potential," she wrote in a note.

"In light of this, we think that interest rates are more likely to fall than to rise in 2019 and 2020."

Capital Economics is tipping that the Reserve Bank's official cash rate target will be 1 per cent by early next year, down from 1.5 per cent currently, as it battles to arrest the nation's worst housing downturn in decades and a slowing economy.


This housing downturn is different
Australia has had housing downturns before, but they usually happen when interest rates are high or rising, not at record lows.
While Ms Gambarini also expects US interest rates to fall half a percentage point, from current levels of 2.25-2.5 per cent to 1.75-2 per cent, by the end of 2020, she does not think that will provide a significant boost to the Australian dollar.

She is predicting the Aussie will still be worth 60 US cents in 2020, down from a previous forecast of 70 US cents.

Other than a declining housing market and Australian rate cuts, Ms Gambarini said falling commodity prices would weigh on the local currency.

"We think that they will generally decline this year as China's economy, which is a major trading partner of Australia, slows further," the economist wrote.

"We expect especially large falls in the prices of iron ore and coal, which together account for 30 per cent of Australia's exports."

The other factor that will drag the currency lower is a general aversion to risky investments at the moment.

"We expect the US stock market to come under pressure again in 2019," Ms Gambarini forecast.

"On past form, when that has happened the Australian dollar has tended to fall."

[SASKFARMER3]

[dmlfarmer]

Here is how you deal with protestors. You evoke the notwithstanding clause an bring out the army and bulldozers like trump did. Or you cut off entitlements to people who block wealth creation for the country. To deal with foreign tarrifs and bullies, you enact legislation to hit right back at them. You ban Saudi crude, you halt Indian visas and work permits and you restrict capital from China.

And to get help with all this, you stop being a dick to our greatest trading partner no matter who is in office. Think trump is going to help us now after the stupidity Freeland and her gang did. Not a chance, we are on our own.
.

So Jazz, are you actually against all personal and property rights? Do you actually feel the government should have the rights to come on private property with the army and bulldozers if they feel a project would provide greater wealth benefit to society than what the landholder is generating? If a company wants to run a new power transmission lines right across the center of your farm, and the government agree this will generate wealth, should the company simply be able to build the line, without regard to your farm or operation, and if you try to resist you have no recourse? Sounds like true socialism to me yet that is what you see to be advocating.

And your suggestion of counter tariffs and restrictions is simplistic at best. The US is the greatest economy in the world and look how well their trade wars are working. RSM Financials predicts Trump tariffs will cost the US economy $1 trillion if it continues. JP Morgan says the tariffs will cost the US 700,000 jobs. The American Action Forum suggested last year the trade war costs the US 19.7 billion a year. The IMF says it is costing the world economy $430 billion already. The CD Howe institute says the steel tariffs the US imposed on Canada has cost Canada 6000 jobs and 8.1 billion. One of the hardest hit groups in the US are soy farmers and besides the price drop caused by the loss of the Chinese market hurting all farmers, the US government is forced to subsidize farmers by 12 billion. That money comes from taxes on all citizens. Sounds socialist to me when all society has to subsidize one group because of the actions of the government.

I know you claim to be a capitalist (in spite of your socialist solutions) so I suggest you real the Fraser Institute (right wing conservative) article on tariffs to learn a little something before you spout more socialism. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/everyone-loses-trade-war https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/everyone-loses-trade-war

And on your final point, I would like to remind you that it was the US that asked us to arrest Wang, which peeved the Chinese. Are you saying it would have been better to say no to the Americans, or simply ignore their request to act on a global warrant. Exactly who did you think Trudeau should please - the Americans, our biggest and closest ally, or the Chinese? Because we sure could not satisfy both.

[jazz]

No Chuck, sheer wont make Canada great again. That ship has sailed for good with this stupid socialists experiment. We wont be able to out the monster back in the bottle now. Its all about just limiting the damage so the smart money can reposition itself out of here. If Trudeau gets in again, Canada will failed or it will fracture. There is no scenario where he comes out on top. If he wins power he loses the country and he can be Prime Minster of Ontario and Quebec. That's basically all he is now anyway.

The prairie provinces would be much richer if we form an economic partnership with the US.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And as soon as Scheer gets elected its all going to change. Make Canada great again.

You have been showing a lot of common sense since your agriville hiatus. But, no, unfortunately, rebuilding trust takes far longer than it took to destroy it.

[SASKFARMER3]

No chuck it will take years to get investment to return and trust the Canadian government and people.

Andrew will have issues along the way with foolish liberals who won’t get why they lost much like the USA.

Maybe these same liberals will threaten to move to Venezuela and experience first hand what the system is that they want in Canada.

Damage was done by Trudeau and it is going to take years to forget this idiot.

[chuckChuck]

Lets give this some perspective. Harpers had 3 major pipelines on tap approved and ready to go. Trudeau killed Northern Gateway with legislation, killed energy east by pandering and killed TMX by obstructionism. What happens in the US with XL is out of our hands but mostly Obamas fault for stalling the original project for what like 8 years.


Here is how you deal with protestors. You evoke the notwithstanding clause an bring out the army and bulldozers like trump did. Or you cut off entitlements to people who block wealth creation for the country. To deal with foreign tarrifs and bullies, you enact legislation to hit right back at them. You ban Saudi crude, you halt Indian visas and work permits and you restrict capital from China.

And to get help with all this, you stop being a dick to our greatest trading partner no matter who is in office. Think trump is going to help us now after the stupidity Freeland and her gang did. Not a chance, we are on our own.

Canada is an extremely weak, spineless country with our loyalties in the wrong places.

And as soon as Scheer gets elected its all going to change. Make Canada great again. LOL