The Debt Party is Over . . . .

[hobbyfrmr]

DJ +320 at 1230am .... Think there's money pouring in as it looks cheap from across the pond? Or are the shorts getting it? This is nutz ... totally awesome but nutz. Need another 400 points to call it over. If this is foreshadowing what's to come in grains, if you don't have an order in you'll miss out. HAVE A NUMBER IN MIND WHERE IT'S TIME TO REDUCE RISK!! Your long next year's production unless your in the Ritchie bros catalog. I'm not saying fwd sell what you don't have but if you got something in the bin know where you want out ahead of time then stick to it. This environment provides opportunity but it'll cut you down just as fast. I don't think any number we've seen in the last 5 years is out of the question between now and July. Volatility is like a pendulum, the faster it gets moving the opposite reaction is more exaggerated. I suspect this'll ripple through every market as bonds come undone. It's just too much money through a very small door. This won't happen again in our lifetimes

I am definitely not an expert on any markets. It sounds to me like you are describing stock market volatility in which I would agree with you.
The only association I can remember with grain price increases are to oil prices. When oil was $90-100/barrel grain prices were profitable. I don’t remember the stock market values at that time.
I note the Aussie drought, Political drama in Brazil and other situations that should increase our grain prices but I am firmly convinced that the grain industry must not allow farmers too much profit. I genuinely hope you are right.

[errolanderson]

The LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) rate is surging of-late. This is the rate banks lend between themselves.

A surging LIBOR rate is also an indication that global credit markets are tightening up. In 2008, the surging LIBOR rate seized global credit markets. This also had an immediate impact ocean freight as lack of credit dry-docked container ships.

Bottom line . . . If credit liquidity between banks begins to seize up, global trade slows, prices drop.

Suspect the VIX volatility index will continue to surge given these incoming uncertain credit market issues. This will have a direct impact on commodity prices. ie: further fallout in crude oil prices?

The central bank lifeboat has already sunk, so markets will have to figure it out on their own this time around.

[bucket]

The LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) rate is surging of-late. This is the rate banks lend between themselves.

A surging LIBOR rate is also an indication that global credit markets are tightening up. In 2008, the surging LIBOR rate seized global credit markets. This also had an immediate impact ocean freight as lack of credit dry-docked container ships.

Bottom line . . . If credit liquidity between banks begins to seize up, global trade slows, prices drop.

Suspect the VIX volatility index will continue to surge given these incoming uncertain credit market issues. This will have a direct impact on commodity prices. ie: further fallout in crude oil prices?

The central bank lifeboat has already sunk, so markets will have to figure it out on their own this time around.

Someone finds a new angle to keep the party going.....and I think 2008 had good grain prices....it also scrapped alot of smaller inefficient vessels on the ocean and created an economy for shipbuilding....

Too bad the boats contracted to come to the west coast to haul grain were not being loaded at lower rates and less demurrage...

[Rareearth]

So if interbank rates go up, and liquidity is the issue, expect interest rate hikes? Or will Trump actually be able to influence the Fed rate not too? If they hold rates and other countries increase the USD will go lower which is what Trump wants s well?

Does the CRB index follow or correlate with interest rates or crude pricing?


Lots of ? Marks I know,

[biglentil]

Grain prices will be strong at some point 1 billion Canuckstan bucks per bushel. The dollar isn't worth the paper its not printed on. The ones who have been trained in keynseyian economics who have had it all wrong up to now will be most in shock.

[checking]

GDR

I thought someone would take a stab at answering where you should invest your mad money.
My inclination is 1948 Canadian silver dollars, but watch out for the forged Chinese ones.

[errolanderson]

Ugly, ugly Asian markets overnight . . . U.S. stocks also under heavy fire.

Crude fallout? . . . Gold rallying.

[biglentil]

Ugly, ugly Asian markets overnight . . . U.S. stocks also under heavy fire.

Crude fallout? . . . Gold rallying.

Pot stocks clobbered too. Very very simple really, reversing quantitative easing is deflating the everything bubble. The fed took its foot off the gas pedal because its staring down the barrel of an overheated asset bubble and high inflation. Its an economy built on 47 years of funny money, the can can no longer be kicked down the road and the chickens are coming home to roost. The average fiat currency has a 40yr lifespan, with gross abuse of the printing press its surprising that its lasted thus far. Its not the fault of just one administration, though if I had to pin it on one, it would be Nixon who abandoned Bretton Woods gold standard in 1971.

Im out on crude stocks as economies fail won't be much need for it. Sure fuel will go to the moon when hyperinflation rages but an electronic certificate for Exxon won't do much good. Don't worry Trudeau spared Canada's last 77 ounces gold and sold the rest.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Pot stocks clobbered too. Very very simple really, reversing quantitative easing is deflating the everything bubble. The fed took its foot off the gas pedal because its staring down the barrel of an overheated asset bubble and high inflation. Its an economy built on 47 years of funny money, the can can no longer be kicked down the road and the chickens are coming home to roost. The average fiat currency has a 40yr lifespan, with gross abuse of the printing press its surprising that its lasted thus far. Its not the fault of just one administration, though if I had to pin it on one, it would be Nixon who abandoned Bretton Woods gold standard in 1971.

Im out on crude stocks as economies fail won't be much need for it. Sure fuel will go to the moon when hyperinflation rages but an electronic certificate for Exxon won't do much good. Don't worry Trudeau spared Canada's last 77 ounces gold and sold the rest.

Why do you think that the can can't be kicked any longer? Not arguing, just asking, since I've heard this before, and it was successfully kicked substantially further than anyone thought possible every time.

[ajl]

The main reason that the can can't be kicked any longer is stagflation. That is what forced rates higher in the early 80's and what is doing it again today. Hence rate rise today. Anybody who thinks Canuckistan has a strong economy with a 50 per barrel WCS discount has gotta get off the cannabis. Sure the economy is more than just energy but not much more.