Supply Management or NO DEAL

[ajl]

You do need to understand Chuck that research paid for by the DFO will be as unbiased as climate research paid for by a liberal government. In another words, put it on the toilet roll.

[sewen]

I read American farms can have cousins, nieces and nephews apply for subsidies even if they don’t live on the farm. Heck why not give the dog a subsidy too.

[beaverdam]

This issue is bound to accelerate, because two very different things are happening here,

1) Trump is looking at improving trade deals so they're more balanced and re-establish some industry in the heartland.

2) Trudeau is looking for any possible way to get re-elected, because his latest moves(pipeline purchase) hasn't been as positive for him, as he'd hoped.

If Trudeau has any hope of getting re-elected, he has to stay on board with those protected industries, particularly, that bulk of them are in Quebec and Ontario.

Trudeau isn't talking about U.S. programs in public, nor have I heard Freeland mention anything.

Trump is the perfect foil for Justin to campaign against, and to boot, the media already hate Trump, so Justin is bound to get positive coverage.

This is more about Trudeau getting re-elected, than trade.

Question is how far will Justin take this, because politically, he can't loose votes/ridings in Quebec.

Trump is turning the knife now, by mentioning the auto industry, Justin can't afford politically to loose that either, nor does he want that to be his legacy either.

So who's going to give what? Trudeau, a stubborn Frenchman, politically desperate, at about 30% in the polls. Trump at 50% in the polls, on his way to de-nuclearize the Korean peninsula.

How rich will you Trump haters feel with $0.50CAD, oh ya, you won't be able to export your grain or livestock to the USA, nor will you be able to buy fertilizer or chemical from them either.


For those that haven't seen it yet, here is our illustrious trade negotiating team,

https://twitter.com/MargaretsBelly/status/1002298937146003456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=ht tp%3A%2F%2Fwww.smalldeadanimals.com%2Findex.php%2F page%2F3%2F https://twitter.com/MargaretsBelly/status/1002298937146003456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=ht tp%3A%2F%2Fwww.smalldeadanimals.com%2Findex.php%2F page%2F3%2F

enjoy the comments in the thread,

[Oliver88]

Heard on the CTV news last night that Trump said there should be no tariffs and no subsidies.

Trump and Larry Kudlow both said they want 0% tariffs with all G7 countries.
They used the 270% on dairy entering Canada as the main example of why they are implementing tariffs.

Dairy is too big of a trade irritatant it seems, time for changes.

[chuckChuck]

Get rid of supply management and we will get rid of Canada's smaller farm based dairy industry.

US dairy farms are often much larger corporate owned mega operations.

US dairy farms are suffering because of over supply of a perishable product.

US Taxpayers are subsidizing their system.

Which system actually costs consumers less after you factor in taxpayer subsidies?

Which system produces better quality? Canada.

Dairy costs for consumers in the US are not always lower.

Which system makes more sense for business planning and farm stability?

Many smaller dairy farmers in the US are committing suicide because they cant make enough money from the market and subsidies.

If we give up supply management what do we get in return?

Why would we give up our dairy industry and all the jobs that go with it for f...all in return?

Trump is not to be trusted on trade as he changes his mind over night depending on who he last talked to. He doesn't even know the basic facts of our trading relationship.

Rex Tillerson was right, he is a moron.

[chuckChuck]

You do need to understand Chuck that research paid for by the DFO will be as unbiased as climate research paid for by a liberal government. In another words, put it on the toilet roll.

Ok, produce evidence they are wrong!


http://business.financialpost.com/pmn/commodities-business-pmn/agriculture-commodities-business-pmn/baloney-meter-does-the-united-states-protect-its-dairy-producers-too

"Adam Taylor, a trade consultant who was an aide to the former Conservative trade minister in Canada, says there’s a more insidious form of U.S. subsidies — undocumented migrant workers on U.S. dairy farms.

Taylor pointed to a pair of surveys that measured the impact of undocumented workers on the dairy industry.

A September 2015 survey by the U.S. National Milk Producers Federation found that half of all workers on U.S. dairy farms are immigrants and if those workers were excluded from the workforce, the price of a gallon of milk would soar 90 per cent. It said the cost to the U.S. economy would be $32 billion.

Last month, another study found that if all illegal workers were kicked out of New York state, 1,100 of its farms would go out of business or reduce their output significantly.

“Americans are hypocrites for going after supply management given their reliance on the undocumented workers that keep U.S. dairy prices artificially low,” said Taylor.

Taylor’s old boss, former trade minister Ed Fast, urged the Liberal government to use that “hypocrisy” to push back at the NAFTA bargaining table.

“The industry itself in the United States has admitted they wouldn’t be viable if they couldn’t use undocumented workers. This is a problem we don’t have in Canada,” said Fast in an interview."

[bobofthenorth]

Everyone with a brain has known for years that supply management's days were numbered. Trump has figured out that it is the hill Truedumb is prepared to die on. This will get a lot worse before it gets better because in the big trade picture supply management is irrelevant. Auto manufacturing on the other hand is serious business and that's Trump's real target. Watch him make the little potato squirm over which industry he wants to cave on. Meanwhile JT is looking to 2019 and being able to run against Trump. I don't expect any quick resolution.

[tubs]

the dairy boards are like the mafia a good old boys network. We get subsidy too through useless programs that keep a lot of people working. Like cropinsurance and our ag department that have no idea what is going on on the farm. Private cropinsurance way cheaper for me

[sewen]

Shouldn’t the Trump administration be playing checkers in a seniors home somewhere?

[chuckChuck]

https://www.agcanada.com/daily/report-pegs-u-s-dairy-support-levels

Report pegs U.S. dairy support levels
U.S. gradually moving toward risk management-based system
Posted Feb. 13th, 2018 by John Greig

Peter Clark
Trade lawyer Peter Clark has studied the level of subsidies available to U.S. dairy farmers. (John Greig photo)

U.S. dairy farmers continue to benefit from broad agriculture supports, a study shows.

Dairy Farmers of Canada has had Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates regularly study the effect of U.S. government policy on dairy farms in that country.

The latest version of the project was released at the Dairy Farmers of Canada policy conference held last week in Ottawa.

It showed U.S. dairy farmers benefit from the equivalent of US$12.06 per hundredweight or C$35.02 per hectolitre. That’s close to 70 per cent of what farmers are paid now for their milk.

Peter Clark, a long-time trade consultant and lawyer with the firm, said at the conference that the U.S. is gradually moving more of its programs toward risk management.

“The U.S. has become aware of the WTO inconsistency of many of their programs,” said Clark. “They’re shifting from direct and countercyclical payments and other issues to various types of insurance programs.”

Clark’s 500-page report is a detailed analysis of many programs, and notes a certain amount of the funds for those programs is allocated to the potential use of those programs by dairy farmers, not actual use.

The programs include: domestic support, export subsidies, conservation programs, crop and livestock gross margin, risk management programs, disaster relief assistance programs, loan programs, crop insurance, livestock support as well as renewable fuels incentives and subsidies and irrigation programs.

Nick Thurler, a Dairy Farmers of Ontario board member from eastern Ontario, said that he knows numerous dairy farmers across the border in New York.

“I know if I told them they got $12 per hundredweight subsidy, I know what the answer would be,” he said.

Clark said he’s heard from people who say they know U.S. farmers who get no direct subsidies, but he points out that the subsidies are mostly indirect and farmers in the western U.S. have much greater benefit due to irrigation.

Alfalfa and forages are the biggest users of irrigation water, mostly to feed dairy cattle — hence the massive amount of money that goes into irrigation systems, he said.

“We look at what is available” to dairy farmers, said Clark. That’s typical of trade evaluations done by other countries as well, he added.

Clark’s study also included the impact of nutrition programs in the U.S. on dairy products.

“Some argue it should be seen as welfare and we shouldn’t be allocating it in this analysis,” he said, but he includes it as the original program was created as a way to deal with excess agriculture production.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s lawyers, Clark noted, have reports that list 160 subsidies on Canadian steel.

“When it comes to trade, you have to be precise.”

— John Greig is a field editor for Glacier FarmMedia based at Ailsa Craig, Ont. Follow him at @jgreig on