MMM

[farming101]

Regarding wheat:
China is forecast to have almost a year's worth of ending stocks. They are forecast to export less than 1% of that. China stocks to use is 108.4%. Take China out of the equation and world stocks/use is 23%.

Mallee, the report says Black Sea values are 30USD higher than last year. To me that's a positive. With the Ruble going nowhere you can imagine what that means to Russian trade.

Also the report mentions that the market advisors recommend being 100% sold old crop. Better than not being able to find a market.

As far as North American production goes, the report mentions that US areas are going to need more rain. Forecasts for prime production areas in Kansas are for small amounts over the next 2 weeks. Heavier amounts in the eastern part of the state. That might actually see more wheat taken out and seeded to row crops. Spring wheat areas prospects have improved is some areas with regard to soil moisture but it is getting late. Lots of US farmers hate to seed spring wheat after May 1.

One thing that could happen is that Canada's ending stocks are going to wind up higher than forecast. There will have to be a good export program for the remainder of the year.

[malleefarmer]

101

China any information from there is either 100% correct or 100% wrong or somewere in between lol.

Canadian stocks you talking wheat or canola?

Alot of growers here are thinking about not growing wheat, barley cheaper to grow for similar yield and may be just a slightly tougher crop.

Our last note worthy rain was novemeber but we are used to long hot dry summers but usually you get some stroms to top up soil moisture hasnt happened this year.

Our spotdec to end of april rainfall thinking will be a record dry.

See wheat down again today havent read why weather funds or what.

Pattern emerging 2 steps foward one big step back repeat process.

Never traded options will have to brush up if i go down that path doubt i will.
Have done straight futures and wheat swaps at times.

Wonder if larry or errol read my ramblings from aust and wish to comment i believe its actually a amrketing forum rather than ploitics/govt policy page

[farming101]

Canadian all wheat ending stocks was what I was referring to. Likely to be higher than WASDE forecast
Wheat prices have a small cushion before I would say we're going down.