Canola now what

[vvalk]

vvalk . . . at least I'm good at one thing . . . being wrong.

Not trying to be a dick but just saying lots of farmers sell based on these predictions and it’s means a lot to some families livelihoods. I get frustrated when it’s always negative and every year by spring we reach prices analysts swear won’t happen. Even when they are called out it’s “ this year is different” and every year they are wrong. Id you get paid to forecast you have to expect criticism

[Goodtime]

VValk if every year higher prices are achieved in the spring why do you need someone to tell you that?

[woodland]

Just locked in most of last years canola which is all a #3 due to green seeds for $10.53 which I think is great considering it’s quality.

Speaking of forecasting/predicting they were talking on the radio that they can now predict where lightning is going to hit in the forest and start a fire. I kinda have a hard time believing that when they can’t get the weather close to start with. Last week we were supposed to hit +12 on Wednesday which they kept pushing back till today and now it’s been dropped altogether. It’s gotten to +2 and that’s what they’re calling for the rest of the week now.

Take any forecast or predictions with a grain of salt. After all they’re created by humans😉

[woodland]

They’rev paying close to $ 12 because she’s in short supply !

The grain cos ain’t making enough money !

As soon as there’s a crop they’ll be giving $ 5 a bushel !

Surprised the runs lasted this long !

She was in short supply “here” after mudding the crop in late this spring and fighting snow/mud all fall too. Not sure who has this record crop (according to StatsCan😉) since it’s not us.

[farming101]

Today's action very bullish after the gap lower star pattern yesterday.

Will need rest of today and tomorrow to give direction. One green bar doth not a trend make

[Bowerpower]

So could perfect storm be brewing. China tariffs USA beans, needs more of our canola, dryness in western Canada, and supplies are shorter than we think.

[Rareearth]

Pricing through the winter months is always ( more or less stable, reacting to currency and outside markets).

Always in the spring and summer the greatest volatility = opportunity
- sell inventory (physical)
- currency
- use futures or options for speculation ( no such thing as a hedger 100%)
- weather risk (physical canola supply)

This is the time of year when what happens in western canada matters,
-seeded acres
-supply of physical ( sold or committed under contract)
- unpriced or unsold grower inventories on farm
-exporter positions long vs short,
- buyers overseas, crushers assess needs, opportunities and risk for canola supply and bid and buy accordingly

[furrowtickler]

Thx for the insight 101 .

[malleefarmer]

read somewere in last few days that up to 70% of farmers sold a at least a portion of there beans at or near $12 good disicpline

[farmaholic]

Nice bounce in canola. Hope it keeps going.
...."one" of these times one-0-one....one of these times I will price....but I'm not waiting for $13.50 because I don't have what it takes.

I always look forward to getting off the roller coaster. It gets nauseating after a while.