Can Canadian Ag Survive a Down Turn!

[Bowerpower]

Buy buy buy...... As much as you can being comfortable in making the payments. Ask yourself this. Have you ever regretted buying land. I would prefer lower prices. I'm younger, want to build more acres. Land is necessary to farm. Priority one is having a land base to pass down to the next generation. Keep building it up. Land may plateau maybe even go down. I hope so, than l will buy more. Trouble is will what I want be available than. Who knows. Have no intention of ever selling. Pay for it once and move on.

[Flatlander]

Les Henry's land chart and the dot com stocks of late 1999 early 2000 have in common, that "blow off top" look to them if your asking me. Lift off is now vertical. Look ou below. Keep some of your powder dry, deals ahead. What goes around comes around. But if that certain piece of dirt comes up you have been waiting for you know what you have to do. Right?

[bucket]

At current levels my farm would be worth more than I would have hoped to win on a lottery not too long ago....I really don't know what's wrong with me.....but if I wanted my kids to farm my lottery win would vanish.....lol.

[tmyrfield]

I wish some one would give me a reason why the high prices on every thing from seed to equipment to land has to continue to rise.

Just one reason. Reply With Quote

The simple reason is...we won't let it.
Quarter section comes up for sale next door and before you know it bids are coming in fast and furious can't pay too much for land.
The guy who ends up with it now needs a new combine, maybe a new drill to. quick, to the dealers to make a deposit before production is all booked up.
Phone input dealer to book more fertilizer and canola seed, before it to goes up or runs out.
Now take a few pictures of everything all shiny and new and put it on social media.
what a hero.
Government bureaucrats and statisticians look at these nice pictures of the new equipment then read the comments on how we needed a new combine to harvest our 58.6 bu canola crop.
They start thinking that gee farmers are doing very well...new equipment, big yields etc. but statscan never asks how much money we owe just how much grain and assets we got.
Justin wants to show the world what a wonderful guy he is so starts making it rain for every left wing wet dream there is.
All of a sudden money man says we need more more more.....guess where it comes from? Doctors Farmers, Mom and pop businesses. income taxes, capital gains taxes carbon taxes, cpp taxes.inheritance taxes and on and on and on.
Its not going to stop till we can't borrow another single fracking penny...like it or not.

[MBgrower]

the ones who will be in trouble when the down turn begins (and yes it will return it always does) are the ones farming and spending based on the boom prices and yields we've seen from 2008 till now. I've farmed long enough to know that we will see a cycle of 5, maybe 10 years of poor prices, and bad weather or a comb of both. the young btos will have to learn some hard lessons.

[tweety]

Land is yes a asset.

So if land drops like every time in Canadaina History since it was settled.

For a very short time it may have - but land has never dropped over the term that matters, and it never will.

Agriculture is flush with cash, bursting at the seams with income to spend on all that extremely over sized ridiculously priced equipment that lasts even less hours then it did 20 years ago.

[bucket]

In 2007 I was talking to a guy that couldn't rent his farm ....he had to pay someone to keep it in shape....wasn't in my area....

That doesn't seem that long ago..

[sk_wheatking]

If land in sf3 area goes to 60,000 a quarter I would have to pay someone to take my stuff. It's what the sf3 guys of the world call "garbage". We somehow manage to grow a crop on it. In all seriousness I feel lucky to be able to call a piece of land mine no matter what it looks like or how stupid people think someone must have been to buy it. I don't begrudge anyone for buying any piece of land or what they pay for it. That's their business. I might not agree with it but what does it matter, has no effect on my life. I'm happy for What I have.

[dalek]

"land never goes down"

Les Henry has a different take. And he's a wise old soul.

[URL="https://www.grainews.ca/2017/02/03/90-years-of-saskatchewan-farmland-prices-2/"]https://www.grainews.ca/2017/02/03/90-years-of-saskatchewan-farmland-prices-2/[/URL]

I’m looking across the road at 100 acres with a story.
At the end of WW1 a bachelor paid $2000 for it at auction. My great grandfather bid to $1800 and got cold feet.
In ‘28 the lucky bidder went to town with the yearly mortgage, got distracted by the hotel next door and lost it all in a poker game. Bank took the farm back and couldn’t get what they were still owed at auction so they rented it to my 20 year old grandfather year to year figuring prices would rebound.
In 1939 they finally got sick of dealing with it and sold it to him for $200.
Land never goes down except when it does

[SASKFARMER3]

correction is what i was looking for want a job proof reading and spell check so Grass is happy.


Pays the shits like farming but still keeps a guy alive.


Land is a necessity for farming but im looking at the big picture not just canada.

Huge USA Farmers are in Receivership or done.

Cant happen in Canada I'm told.

Ha i say.

Can happen to any body if something you didn't see goes on or something you cant control hits you.

Its farming but right now at these levels i don't see it going much higher before the end.

Yes it won't hit the 50000 level i stated that all along.

But like previous times in Canadian History it will drop by a percentage before moving up again.

History does repeat and knowing the right time to pull or sink or swim is the question.

But todays question was explain why it has to keep going up.

Look every one at the big picture.

Your costs your investment and your retirement.