Can Canadian Ag Survive a Down Turn!

[SASKFARMER3]

No this isn't about me.

Its about what i see world wide in ag with our competitors and whats going on in Crazy Sask.

We grow one crop a year nothing grows in snow at least i haven't found that yet.

Yes ill buy when our land locally gets back to 200 or less because you can make money at over 328 and up to 428 sorry no it doesn't and thats what i was showing.

But if a crash does happen the banks won't borrow hell they will have other problems to worry about land. So new ways maybe like Brazil will happen barter system. I dont know.

just stirring the pot.

I wish some one would give me a reason why the high prices on every thing from seed to equipment to land has to continue to rise.

Just one reason.

[farmaholic]

Sk-wheat....I've been wrong for the last 3 to 5 years but I have a hard time believing it can sustain the growth rates of the last while. In fact I think it is kind of over valued now. I don't know what will happen. But I would bet if it does correct it will stay down for a "period"(you define your own timeframe) but will recover and maybe surpass current values if the economics of farming drive it there. Speculation was responsible for much of the appreciation in this area. Tenants don't have to make it worth while for investors to own land!

Sask's suppressed land(Gov ownership policy) prices were the perfect environment for some investors to do very well....the party just might be over.

[sk_wheatking]

I know sf3 land goes up and down in price. But why some people hope for a land crash is beyond me. It will go down or maybe go up or maybe stay the same. Who knows. I don't really care what land prices are right now I'm not buying or selling. I may be reading your responses the wrong way because things get lost in translation of emotions in print easily so excuse me if I'm wrong but you really get upset if someone posts something you don't agree with. I get it you want 50,000 a quarter land for various reasons. Just remember if land prices tank so will everything else. It's relativity. I'm sorry you can't accept friendly debate. I've been on your side on most issues anyway.

[SASKFARMER3]

Land is yes a asset.

So if land drops like every time in Canadaina History since it was settled.

the 550 now should be at 300 and then slowly climb again.

The 300 now should be at 220 and climb.

The 160 now will drop to 75 and then climb.

Similar in 80s took almost 20 years because we lost lots of great farms in the 80s that make todays BTOS look like chump change.

Im not hoping for a crash but if i need one clear to buy in future doesn't matter if its 500 or 200.

If your selling and need a out awesome time to do it. Hell why not doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize its time.

But if your a hold and wait it just might be getting close.

Now if this all does implode borrowing will not happen like in past and maybe new ways of lending will come forth.

Just saying history does repeat.

[farmaholic]

....you can't spend the money your land is worth unless you sell it or borrow against it!!!!! So unless your selling or borrowing against it, does it really matter what it's "worth"? But it sure does when you're buying it!

[SASKFARMER3]

tubs i know what you mean when i got really winding up and going like a idiot on buying land was after the 80s before that i tried to buy and farmed with my dad. we had a good base so purchasing extra didn't really happen unless the perfect patch showed up. Then the last Christmas before the big crash and i almost almost bought 7 at the peak. Didn't and own now three of them plus a few others.

ITs like investing and selling canola some hit the top some wait and sell at the bottom.

Yes you only hit three maybe in a life time of excellence.

Im not advocating a collapse but study whats going on and some one please explain how why or not im wrong.

Its rather simple explain why it just has to go up with all the shit happening world wide in ag.

Remember we heard it before the world is running out of food.

[SASKFARMER3]

ok sk wheat king.

Explain the land drop in the 80s yes high interest rates but the price sky rocketed and their was no end in sight the USA and others stated to subsidize canada did shit all and interest went through the roof.

Boom implosion.

Gary sold half the business so he's out.

Jimmy is learning the car business and ag are two different kettles.

Now yes its awesome to sit and look at your value of land and think wow thats a nice number.

But where does buying at the price were reaching make any sence. Explain. Other than buy each year to keep what you have worth more. ITs a pyramid.

But lets look at world ag.

Canada isn't the end all be all. Other places produce way than us and when they get things figured out look out.

but explain why you see it keep going up.

I dont.

[tubs]

I started farming in 1992 bought land at 300 an acre now its going for 2200. I had a tough enough time paying for that. Have a son wanting to farm now and buy some land. I am worried about a downturn like we seen in the early eighties lots of good operators went under because of bad timing going into agriculture. Remember there is lots of money in agriculture just non for farmers. Most of the time you make an ok living and some years are fantastic but you only get about 3 of those in your lifetime of farming.

[farmaholic]

Please include me in your tirade sk_wheat. ....I'm not "advocating" for a correction but can see it happening. I guess we shouldn't let land prices be a barrier to enrty when you can rent land, the most important asset, you would use in your career.

As I've said before...then you better have "something" to show for it at the end....otherwise all you've done is feather everyone else's nest! If you don't have the land...better have a pile of cash, a really nice house and maybe even a cottage at the lake or investments of some kind somewhere!

How much "value" do farmers put in land ownership? Ownership isn't necessary.

[sk_wheatking]

I've said it before the crash lots are begging for on here might happen yet. Sf3 for example constantly complains about land prices. If your not buying what do you care? Isn't it good for you if you want to sell off a couple quarters? I'd like to bitch that a new f150 lariat was 12 grand in 1980 and it's 75 thousand now.
Farmers lol.....the only business people in the world that complain when their biggest asset goes up in value. Oh and I love the line....but but what about the guy trying to start out!? Answer to that is if your so concerned then what's stopping you from selling to that person for 40,000 a quarter. I hope land keeps going up because it's the only thing keeping people alive. Your equipment isn't worth **** all to be blunt. It's a terrible depreciating asset. Come to think of it I don't think Jimmy Pattinson and Gary redhead get together on the phone and say to each other....wait! What about the guy starting out! Better lower the price of that quad track to 25 grand.
The only reason some guys want under valued land is to add to their base, cheap. I like a deal too but I want to get a good deal if I sell also.