One Major Shock Event Away . . . .

[danny W1M]

errol, have you been watching the VIC lately, no sign of it flattening, or bottoming out yet.

[errolanderson]

danny . . . as long as the VIX steady / down, U.S. stock markets will continue to surge to historic highs.
VIX Volatility index is a gauge of investor confidence / fear. One major event can change all this (IMO).

[danny W1M]

That was my point, No fear or concern from the industry. They'd own it, if there was.

[danny W1M]

Unemployment rate lowest since 2000.

[URL="https://www.wsj.com/articles/hiring-rebounds-in-october-unemployment-rate-falls-to-4-1-1509712307"]https://www.wsj.com/articles/hiring-rebounds-in-october-unemployment-rate-falls-to-4-1-1509712307[/URL]

[errolanderson]

Payrolls released at 261,000 this morning was actually quite disappointing, Some pre-estimates forecasting 350,000 to 400,000. U.S. labor workforce is now at a 40 year low around 61.5% participation.

Real unemployed numbers do not match gov't numbers (IMO). It depends on how you define unemployment in a shrinking workforce.

[danny W1M]

maybe it's, A I robots

[ajl]

Payrolls released at 261,000 this morning was actually quite disappointing, Some pre-estimates forecasting 350,000 to 400,000. U.S. labor workforce is now at a 40 year low around 61.5% participation.

Real unemployed numbers do not match gov't numbers (IMO). It depends on how you define unemployment in a shrinking workforce.

Neither is workforce participation a relevant figure. The most of the mid 1960's had high real growth, non existent inflation and a workforce participation similar to today. In the 1960's women were raising kids. Starting in the 70's they took on government jobs leading to the mess we are in today. Generated high workforce participation numbers for a while.

[errolanderson]

Neither is workforce participation a relevant figure. The most of the mid 1960's had high real growth, non existent inflation and a workforce participation similar to today. In the 1960's women were raising kids. Starting in the 70's they took on government jobs leading to the mess we are in today. Generated high workforce participation numbers for a while.

Maybe U.S. unemployment will have a 3 in front of it ahead. Stock markets will love this news. But it changes nothing to bubble asset market risk with a spiralling debt crisis in-progress.

[sumdumguy]

Here are some economic debt figures that may help put the overall U.S. debt picture in perspective.
One major shock event could now quickly tip-over this debt-mired applecart (IMO). 

U.S. National Debt: $20.37 trillion

U.S. GDP: $19.35 trillion

U.S. Federal Spending: $4 trillion

U.S. Federal Revenue: $3.32 trillion 

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit: $690 billion 

Private Credit Card Debt: $1.021 trillion

Private Student Loan Debt: $1.47 trillion

Private Mortgage Debt: $14.755 trillion

Total Private Personal Debt: $18.54 trillion

U.S. Total Debt: $67.92 trillion

U.S. Unfunded Liabilities: $107.78 trillion

Liabilities Per Taxpayer: $893,304

Savings per Family: $6,060

Personal Debt per Citizen: $56,867

The underlying figures show that the U.S. and Citizens are more indebted now than they have ever been in history.

Data courtesy of Kim Eisberg, independent financial economist, Palm Beach, Florida



US unemployment rate 4.1%, lowest since 2010.

[errolanderson]

US unemployment rate 4.1%, lowest since 2010.

U.S. unemployment at 4.1%, but no wage growth. An observation . . . .