Trying to apply logic to 2017 crops dumb thing to do lol.
Australia has had just it time rains to 1 enchance the crop in good area 2 halt the decline in others 3 allow people to seed albeit 6 to 8 weeks late.
Australias crop will be 20 to 25% below average is what pundits suggest but the is a carryover from last year so almost a average exportable surplus.
Domestic basis will be the kicker here for wheat rather than export prices.
Canola again 25% below but all 2016 crop shifted so upside in canola.
Usa spring wheat I read is poorest since 2008 but currently markets are not worried Canada drought creeping further and further north but presume still good pockets shall you be 15% below average or worse?
EU seems to be average or slightly below which differs from some reports but quality questionable.
Prices peaked here 3 weeks ago $305 and has since settled at $275 285 still a good price historically.
Weve sold 10% of expected production. Many maybe smart maybe not farmers sold at top and also bought a call option to capture any rise often wonder about options if you got the top of the market be happy why blow 10 to 12 per tonne on options.
Weather forecast here suggesting below average rainfall for crucial period but noit drought but try telling that to guys who are 60% below at the moment. My patch we are almost smack bang on average and going ok.
forecast for praries and usa is similar isn't it below average but not disaster or temps gonna kill you?
Opportunities for 2018 will be about between now and march 2018 and experts suggest the world may swing back to wheat in areas that have dropped acres this year, guess that's how the market functions farmers respond and canola acres expected to rise in oz too.
Feed barley is holding up really really well here new season 240 dec 17 delivery again historically a fair price.
that's its from me this foggy Monday morning
Australia has had just it time rains to 1 enchance the crop in good area 2 halt the decline in others 3 allow people to seed albeit 6 to 8 weeks late.
Australias crop will be 20 to 25% below average is what pundits suggest but the is a carryover from last year so almost a average exportable surplus.
Domestic basis will be the kicker here for wheat rather than export prices.
Canola again 25% below but all 2016 crop shifted so upside in canola.
Usa spring wheat I read is poorest since 2008 but currently markets are not worried Canada drought creeping further and further north but presume still good pockets shall you be 15% below average or worse?
EU seems to be average or slightly below which differs from some reports but quality questionable.
Prices peaked here 3 weeks ago $305 and has since settled at $275 285 still a good price historically.
Weve sold 10% of expected production. Many maybe smart maybe not farmers sold at top and also bought a call option to capture any rise often wonder about options if you got the top of the market be happy why blow 10 to 12 per tonne on options.
Weather forecast here suggesting below average rainfall for crucial period but noit drought but try telling that to guys who are 60% below at the moment. My patch we are almost smack bang on average and going ok.
forecast for praries and usa is similar isn't it below average but not disaster or temps gonna kill you?
Opportunities for 2018 will be about between now and march 2018 and experts suggest the world may swing back to wheat in areas that have dropped acres this year, guess that's how the market functions farmers respond and canola acres expected to rise in oz too.
Feed barley is holding up really really well here new season 240 dec 17 delivery again historically a fair price.
that's its from me this foggy Monday morning