Forward Contracting Canola

[farming101]

It might have no bearing at all but I would want the Dec 6 high in RSX17 to fall before looking to far forward. If $515 falls the chances of a May/June high improve significantly. DYODD
Having said that it is very close, Dec 6 RSX hit $515. Today hit 513.90. Call it a technicality
Anyway fall basis is some areas is in the $40 to $50 range. Take off options premium and it don't look too good.
Nov 500 puts were 15.20 after the close.
Certainly a good recovery and a good place to do something as crusher said.
Unless you like to let it ride

[farmaholic]

I would think $11 would be a damn good starting point for canola this fall. I bet spot canola will be sold sub-$10 during "Harvest Happy Hour". I sold a little over 600 bushels I couldn't squeeze into the bins for $9.68 last fall.

[crusher]

So if Agriville is a good sample of farmers, then 50% will have sell orders at $11. Why don't you adjust your target to $10.95, merchants will pick those off first. Going forward it might be a challenge to get past $11 if there is all this hedge pressure.

[farmaholic]

....then ask for $11.05 and have them pick it at $11.....why do we always have to adjust our expectations?

Psychological perceptions

Hold out for a nickel and take a dollar less!

[Grahamp]

I really believe in situations like this where there is a number that everyone is attracted to you are better being below it by a bit say 10.75 or above it by a fair bit 11.5-11.75. If there is a ton of volume right at 11 they'll stay just under knowing that they have a lot of volume right at 11. However if they fill eveyone at 11 there can be a nice vacuum that can really move it up.

[wakopa]

A lot of money has been lost trying to get 11 dollars instead of 10:98 .

[farmaholic]

I hear you guys loud and clear....just being Devil's Advocate. But it is something to think about. But don't lose any sleep over it, unless you want to.

[Partners]

Bunge down 13 cents this morn. for Dec..

Had large volume pricing yesterday..Got some $11.03 picked up off farm..Going to Altona..