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Vancouver Real Estate Cracking . . . .

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  • helmsdale
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2014
    • 2129

    #31
    We were one of the last places to experience "the boom"... Investors found a couple parcels over the last 5-10 years, and there has been no looking back. Prices were static if not declining over a near 20 year period from 1985-2005. Since then, asking prices have appreciated by 375%. Rent so far has stayed slightly more realistic over the same period. It's gone up by maybe 25-50%.

    Put another way, when I first graduated from university, I could have bought a 1/4 sec with 8 months of off farm gross wages. That was right at the beginning of the boom. I put in a few above market bids, but was outbid by $150-200 every time by outside money. 11 years later, that has skyrocketed to between 40 and 50 months of off farm gross wages. There is not much point in even throwing bids out anymore.

    A few other younger guys are still playing the game betting on ever increasing land values, and ultra low interest rates. The idea is that you only have to suffer through perhaps five years of making payments however you can on a block of land, then releverage the equity appreciation (5 years of payments on a 25 year loan will not gain you much equity) as a down payment on more land. Rinse and repeat every 5 years, hoping for a doubling or more... So long as the banks stay appeased, land values continue rocketing skyward, and interest rates remain at rock bottom, the hope is that you can roll out a multi millionaire by the time you're 40. Good Luck.
    Last edited by helmsdale; Feb 4, 2017, 18:24. Reason: math was way out to lunch on rent...

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    • GDR
      Senior Member
      • Oct 2016
      • 1659

      #32
      Might be different in SK. I'm in central AB like Hamloc. Coffee shop here blames investors and non farmers also but in talking with realtors it's the farm community that has pushed up prices. Lots of generational farms here with deep pockets and young guys to continue. From the non farmer side a 1/4 acre lot in town for 150k makes a 650k quarter look pretty attractive. Interesting thing happened here over the last 10 yrs. Western land with mountain views but less than perfect land was always worth 50% more than good grain land on the east side of highway 2. That good grain land now worth quite a bit more than the west side of hwy 2. So I do think it is ag driven. I would like to buy more and would like to see a correction at my point in life but don't see it happening. It was already mentioned about the Europeans seeing it at cheap but even interior of BC has $20000 per acre plus farmland that is still traded as ag land. I also agree as a going concern as long as you can make your payments value is irrelevant.

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      • helmsdale
        Senior Member
        • Nov 2014
        • 2129

        #33
        Multiple avenues for financing now... Investors in our area, and a colony expansion around the inlaws may have been the first to drive prices up, but long established, equity rich operations have sunk themselves to the eyeballs willingly over the last few years.

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        • MBgrower
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2012
          • 1565

          #34
          I always use a purchase price per acre / gross revenue per acre ratio to determine feasability. Compare this ratio to past years when you bought land. Did it make sense then? Does it now?

          I also agree it is mostly local neighbours bidding up land, not the chinese or foreign investors.

          Comment

          • blackpowder
            Senior Member
            • Feb 2010
            • 9333

            #35
            I too am not convinced that a shit storm "couldn't happen".
            But... I am 30 mins east of camrose and I'm not sure if 650k would get a quarter or not. All local buyers.
            What the future holds is anybodys guess. I'm tired of saying 'never' only to be wrong everytime.
            It would take a serious longer term problem for rents to fall.
            Currently 75 - 125.

            Be careful you eastern boys

            Comment

            • hobbyfrmr
              Senior Member
              • Feb 2008
              • 3178

              #36
              Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
              Hobby, once the critical mass is established it's not that hard....it doesn't have to make economic sense on its own! Well managed farms.....blah blah blah!
              Ok. I didnt understand your comment, I thought you were saying that land prices were too high.

              Comment

              • jake550
                Senior Member
                • Jan 2015
                • 308

                #37
                Only land investors get a chance at around here is something no one else wants.
                All farmer money that drove land from 50-60k a quarter to $300k ++ in a matter of about ten years.
                Anything decent that comes for sale sells for the same or more than the last sale. Don't see any land price drops around here yet.

                Comment

                • Oliver88
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2012
                  • 4688

                  #38
                  Average land price in Sask......

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                  • farmaholic
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2010
                    • 17483

                    #39
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                    CAREFUL...

                    POP

                    ...Ooops!!!

                    Comment

                    • biglentil
                      Senior Member
                      • Jun 2015
                      • 3286

                      #40
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                      Also plausible all depends on how the money tap is controlled.

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                      In reality the lands value has not changed its the same ole dirt growing the same ole crops at similar prices. What has tanked is the value of paper dollars. Purchasing power is eroding rapidly.
                      Last edited by biglentil; Feb 5, 2017, 10:41.

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