Stats Canada! Wow the mention of snow was one little line.

[wmoebis]

.......and then the quality question.

CGC Harvest Sample Program is probably skewed as well because of the late harves.....and is it a representative cross-section of Western Canada and Producers?

Better than nothing?

Although I am a strong supporter of the Harvest program I question how representative the submitted samples are. Do farmers send random samples or do they leave out ones that are obviously #1 or Feed and send the ones that are questionable.
Most farmers have submitted samples to various elevators by now. Farmers tell them how many bus each sample represents, bin # and they grade them. Wouldn't their results be closer, also it would give CGC a record of how accurate the elevators were grading, by comparing results. Farmer sends sample from 1 bin to 3 or 4 elevators if they are graded differently by elevators the CGC could investigate why the diff. More training needed or intentional.

[farmaholic]

Crush margin is about $120/tonne(ICE Canada canola board crush margin)..... yes, ONE HUNDRED TWENTY DOLLARS!!!!

Show me the money!

[tweety]

Aren't you the same group of wise farmers who said no one will be growing wheat?

[farmaholic]

Well then SF3, with your estimate the sooner they start the price rationing the better it will be for everyone.

Not arguing with or supporting your number, just saying.

Is twelve dollars possible nearby?

Out to July might make it! July $541.90(9:50 Dec 06) or $12.29 zero basis. $12.79 basis nets twelve dollar canola.

[furrowtickler]

I wounder if they could add in the quality factor ? May not be achievable but would give a better reflection of what's out there ?

AJL brings up a good point on canola , also a lot is heating on guys the past ten days. Almost 20% of the canola coming in now is showing moderate to severe heating . Some being turned away.
Wheat is anouther one. Sure a big durum number but 1/2 is garbage. HRSW is anouther iffy one.
Big yields don't mean much if 1/3 to 1/2 is falling into feed catagory as far as the export price goes.
End of the day , time will sort it out . But we do need a better price discovery system based not only on yield but grade at this time of year.

[bgmb]

Crushers are running flat out printing money, canola supplies are going to be very tight

[errolanderson]

Market has ignored this report as they should since it is irrelevant. Price for dry canola has rallied lately as there is 2 markets one for dry and another for wet. How much of the later makes it is anybodies guess. Still canola out in the field here.

Stats Can report considered irrelevant shortly after they released is becoming a serious problem. If our gov't reporting is that bad, what's the point? This also has the risk of messing up true price discovery for markets. I'm venting, but something has to change . . . .

[ajl]

Market has ignored this report as they should since it is irrelevant. Price for dry canola has rallied lately as there is 2 markets one for dry and another for wet. How much of the later makes it is anybodies guess. Still canola out in the field here.

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol at the time of the survey all were asked what they believed to be in the field I stated what was harvested so probably close but the harvested crop in November was less do to snow rain deer shrink etc. So what most would have reported in October was probably high.

[SASKFARMER3]

Happy explain why you don't believe my number.

Super canola area along the Sask border all way north on west side of the province has been growing big big yields of Canola. Paliser would not believe, but rain in a desert makes grain.

The yields were average to what their use to or below and some wasn't harvested.

Take alberta Canola alley and lots in the fields never to be harvested.

Take Manitoba switching to soy and Canola not a big deal.

Northern sask with crop out tough harvest shit show.

And yes I have a number below the experts guess.

So explain please why you think its better.