Canary seed Stocks/Use and Prices...

[farmaholic]

Looking back to 101's chart, when you look where we are now, "historically" it isn't a horrible price.

Maybe there is enough around to take the spikes out of the market.

Take a minute to look at the chart and see what percentage of the time canary is priced where it is now.

I know that is of little consolation.... especially given the profitability of it compared to some other crops.

I don't think, in fact I'm pretty sure, that market isn't big enough to take all the acres that people would like to switch out of durum, red spring wheat or malt barley.

[Guest]

What is the best varieties to seed? Does it make good sense to go to the new hairless varieties?

we grow cantate , sure works good on our land . 30 bpa + pretty common here. hairless don't yield good around here

[sumdumguy]

Farmaholic 30 bushels @ $12.00 = $600. No good?

[sumdumguy]

What kind of math was that 30 x 12 is 360.

[iceman]

Where are you getting the total stocks number from stats can? Oh my Jesus!

BREAKING NEWS....... They have no clue what's out there. No sniffing clue.

Granted there is probably some huge margins for the processors but they haven't had to raise their bids in years because it still keeps coming through the doors. Than add in all the AOG sucker contracts and boom no need to more bid for product.

At some point this will break and go parabolic in a short order but I just can't see it happening in the next 12 months because of the following reasons.

1. Huge acres mostly coming from durum
2. Lots still in the field
3. Suckers contracts (AOG)
4. Lots of bins of collectors edition canary


Give me a ping, Vasili. One ping only, please.
Iceman

[sumdumguy]

The Ukrainians are producing for all of Europe. Onlu US and Mexico, so only US for good market. Too bad, kids have Ipads now instead of birds. Guys going out of durum may substitute Canary, then we could see downward pressure, but then a little drought might reverse trend, who knows?

[LEP]

Statscan has no reliable data on stocks. I know several farms with unreported stocks. One guy with 50,000 plus bu.

When I was delivering some reds to a local processor I asked about canary prices and why they haven't seen a bump. The guy's reply was when the market softens and he drops the price, product comes in from everywhere.

It is going to take a 2002 type drought to fix that.

[farmaholic]

sdg....here in the slum of the Ghetto we only grew it twice.....first time ever it only ran about 25 and combined fairly easy, second time about 10 bpa and was like combining rolls of barbed wire....last time we grew it!

Niche limited market crop....easily over produced.

I too think there is WAY more out there than is reported!

[bucket]

The guy that has a good handle on the market was asking about canary seed agronomics a while back. ....

[farmaholic]

He's probably tired of getting ****ed by durum. Or wants to grow some personally because he thinks canary is ready to soar to a new price altitude or wants everyone to grow it so there's lots of cheap seed to handle. My money is on.....aaaaa forget it the tinfoil hat fell off!