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Stats Canada Tomorrow ah how they will be so off the reality!
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Stats Can canola production pegged at 17.024 MMT suggests our crop is down 1.2% as compared to 2015 production of 17.231 MMT. Go figure . . . .
Average trade estimate is 18.1 MMT
If Stats Can is right, there will be no canola left in the bin at the end of 2016-17. Go figure . . . .
If Stats Can is right, this is incredibly 'bullish the basis'.
Go figure . . . .
And yet the basis is extremely wide even by Harvest standards. How long do we have to wait for it to narrow. Really no way that I can see to get some moved for cash flow and not get ****d.
Joey . . . There is solid demand for Cdn canola, but the overall canola production is much larger than what Stats Can has projected.
Average guess was 18.1 MMT. Our ProMarket Wire estimate was 19 MMT . . . nowhere close to Stats Can.
Realize weather still impacting production, but trade realizes the potential size of this crop which has hammered your basis levels. Basis levels seasonally begin to strengthen in October. New year deliveries should attract better levels as well.
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