stats Canada comes to same conclusion I said back in July!

[errolanderson]

SF3 - Canola needs crushers to be able to
smile once again. If crushers start to
make money again at these price levels,
then futures are apt to rally.

But that isn't the case right now . . . .

[bucket]

Well if the canola continues lower, those crushers may be pretty unhappy when they have even less to crush next year.

Its pretty simple, in alot of the prairies 8.50 wheat makes more sense to grow than sub 12 dollar canola. Not just from an economic point but agrinomics as well.

Besides as SF3 has asked numerous times what happened to the premium over soybeans?

[LWeber]

Bucket: Send me an email for flax stats...

[bucket]

Weber

Done.

But I will ask the same questions here.

I am wondering what the flax production number was in the Ukraine for 3 reasons:

1. If there cereal harvest was lower due to drought, then logic tells me so was their flax harvest.

2. If the above is partly true, then does Europe finally come back to Canada for flax.

3. If 1 and 2 are true, given Canada's position what is the outlook for flax?

[bucket]

Emails from the grain companies are encouraging 12 dollar new crop canola target. No shit or the acres are going down.

But now that they played their hand my next target goes in at 12.50, I gotta recover some of that expensive seed cost.

me just big dumbshit farmer duhuh! Oh shit I might be catching burbertitis.

[furrowtickler]

errol, what were the crush margins the past couple of years? Did they not make an absolute fortune for quite a while? What are they now? Are they loosing money right now? What has been their average the past 3-4 years. I am sure they are doing just fine - don't kid yourself...
Yes we need the crushers, but they need our product more. Nobody cared from their end when we were getting only $5-6/bus - opperating at a loss. As well they could care less that alot of guys produced well below 20 bus canola crops this year - some in the red ink.
Sometime it sucks to be on the negative side of things - but we all have been there - except for wage earners who don't rely on farm income.
Is $12 canola enough? Maybe , if wheat falls below 7 it will be.

[charliep]

Just curious with all the whining and snivelling here, what you would have the market do differently today? For those who didn't answer the question, what this the difference in the oil/meal content for soybeans versus canola? Which one is hot and which is cold? Which one has more downside risk? What are crush margins and basis levels doing? From a market side, what is happening to volume and open interest? Why?

[Kodiak]

Soybeans up 8% since mid Nov. Meal up 6%. Bean oil up 7.7% Canola up 4%. Canola futures have no carry. Cash basis for canola enhances the inverse in the futures. Beans nor meal have any carry. Bean oil does.

What does that say?

[cottonpicken]

If the public ever figures out how bad vegetable oil is
for you we may end up with a demand problem,but
that will never happen.

[wd9]

Are you completely stoned cotton?