CWB meeting in Vulcan AB...

[Burbert]

Current short crop in North Amerika is
dictating how grain companies treat
framers. IT IS NOT CAUSA THE DEMISE OF
THE COMEDIAN WHEATIE BORED! Time will
tell, another year (normal year) will
give a truer indication of where the
bear has shit in the buckwheat patch.
All marketeers tryin to take credit fer
current good grain prices are so fulla
themselves its laughable to watch them
crowing and walkin around like the
bloated knowitalls they is.........

[TOM4CWB]

Burb,

In case you missed it... Wheat was NOT short in the US in 2012. Looks like wheat could well be short in 2013 in the US; as new crop ratings are much lower than last year. Australia/Turkey have had problems.

A recent USDA update:

"WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels this month.
Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments, and
an outlook for increased foreign competition. Projected U.S. exports are lowered 25 million bushels
each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. Projected all-wheat imports
are unchanged, but imports are projected slightly higher for HRW wheat with an offsetting reduction
made for SRW wheat imports. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is
narrowed 10 cents on both ends to $7.75 to $8.45 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.9 million tons lower. Beginning stocks for
2012/13 are lowered 0.3 million tons. Higher 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance in EU-27
and lower production for China account for most of the reduction in global 2012/13 beginning
stocks. Higher 2011/12 production for Pakistan and lower exports for Australia raise 2012/13
beginning stocks for both countries and partly offset the reductions for EU-27 and China.
Global wheat production for 2012/13 is lowered 1.6 million tons. Production is reduced 2.0 million
tons for Australia as continued dryness during grain fill in October further reduced yield prospects in
western and southeastern growing areas. Production is also lowered 0.3 million tons for Turkey
based on the latest confirmations that cool, wet weather during the early growing season delayed
development, increased disease problems, and lowered yields in the country’s central growing
region. Small increases are made in production for Pakistan, EU-27, and Algeria.
Global wheat trade is raised for 2012/13, reflecting the continuation of strong shipments from the
Black Sea region and India, and the growing competiveness of wheat from the EU-27. Exports are
raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Russia, and 0.5 million tons
for India. Partly offsetting these increases is a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Australia with the
smaller expected crop and the 1.4-million-ton reduction projected for U.S. exports. Imports are
projected 2.7 million tons higher with increases for China, Egypt, EU-27, Israel, Kenya, and Mexico.
Global wheat feeding for 2012/13 is lowered 2.5 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Russia,
Ukraine, South Korea, and India. Small increases in expected wheat feed use for Egypt, Israel,
and Japan limit the global decline. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.2 million
tons higher with increases for the United States, Pakistan, China, and Egypt. Lower stocks are
projected for Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Australia. At the projected 174.2 million tons, global
stocks remain 46.0 million tons above the recent low in 2007/08.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected slightly higher with small
increases forecast for corn and sorghum production and higher projected corn imports. Forecast
corn production for 2012/13 is raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bushel increase in the corn yield
to 122.3 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is forecast 4 million bushels higher, also on a
higher yield. Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting expectations for more
shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies
from the eastern Corn Belt. Corn food, seed, and industrial use for 2012/13 is raised 17 million
WASDE-512-2
bushels with higher use projected for sweeteners and starch. Corn ending stocks are projected 28
million bushels higher at 647 million. The season-average farm price for corn, at $6.95 to $8.25 per
bushel, is projected 20 cents lower at the midpoint, mostly reflecting a lower-than-expected
September price and the continuation of weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the
past month.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.8 million tons higher with larger corn
carryin stocks for EU-27 and Mexico, and higher corn production in the United States. Corn
production for 2011/12 is raised 0.9 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and
Mexico. Additional increases for South Africa, Guatemala, and Brazil boost global corn production
2.7 million tons to a record 880.5 million for 2011/12. Global coarse grain production for 2012/13 is
raised 0.9 million tons with a number of largely offsetting foreign changes made this month.
Global 2012/13 corn output is raised 0.7 million tons to 839.7 million. Despite the sharp drop yearto-
year, 2012/13 production is projected to be the second highest on record supported by record
high foreign output. Corn production is raised 0.6 million tons for Guatemala, 0.5 million tons for
Russia, and 0.4 million tons each for Indonesia and Turkey. Corn production is lowered 1.0 million
tons for EU-27 and 0.8 million tons for Mexico. Sorghum production is raised 0.4 million tons for
Argentina, but lowered the same amount for Mexico. A 0.2-million-ton increase in EU-27 barley
production is mostly offset by small reductions for Argentina and Algeria. EU-27 oats production is
lowered 0.3 million tons, but rye production is raised a similar amount.
Global 2012/13 corn imports are raised 2.8 million tons with increases for EU-27, United States,
South Korea, and Mexico. Russia corn exports are raised 0.3 million tons for the 2012/13
marketing year. Also supporting higher 2012/13 marketing year imports are higher 2011/12
marketing year exports for Brazil and South Africa, up 2.0 million tons and 0.3 million tons,
respectively. (The 2011/12 marketing years for Brazil and South Africa run through the end of
February 2013 and April 2013, respectively.) Sorghum imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.2 million
tons for Mexico with exports for Argentina raised the same amount. Barley imports for 2012/13 are
raised 0.5 million tons for Iran supported by increases for EU-27 and Russia exports. Global corn
feeding is raised 3.1 million tons with increases for EU-27, Indonesia, South Korea, Guatemala,
and Russia. World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.7 million tons higher at 118.0
million."

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

http://www.uswheat.org/uswPublic2009.nsf/index?OpenPage